Maria Exports Limited is a major garment export house based on China. The sales figures (in1000 units) of a particular garment during the past 20 weeks are given in table below.23.0421.9423.94Week123.6823456789103555754811121314151617181920Demand212418222723Find the simple exponential smoothing forecast for all the 20 weeks and also forecast thedemand for 21" week. Assume a = 0.2 and F₁ = 21. (Round to two decimals)2125271819222624172129272325

The forecasting process can involve the use of different methods like the moving average, weighted…

Answered: Find the simple exponential smoothing…

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter13: Regression And Forecasting Models

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 42P: The file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars)...

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Under what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?
Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. As the Marketing Manager for Southeastern Corrugated, what would you do upon receiving the request for quotation from Coastal Products?
Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. Is Ben Gibson acting legally? Is he acting ethically? Why or why not?
The file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars) through credit unions. a. Use these data to forecast consumer revolving credit through credit unions for the next 12 months. Do it in two ways. First, fit an exponential trend to the series. Second, use Holts method with optimized smoothing constants. b. Which of these two methods appears to provide the best forecasts? Answer by comparing their MAPE values.
The file P13_22.xlsx contains total monthly U.S. retail sales data. While holding out the final six months of observations for validation purposes, use the method of moving averages with a carefully chosen span to forecast U.S. retail sales in the next year. Comment on the performance of your model. What makes this time series more challenging to forecast?
Maria Exports Limited is a major garment export house based on China. The sales figures (in 1000 units) of a particular garment during the past 20 weeks are given in table below. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Demand 21 24 18 22 27 23 21 25 27 18 19 22 26 24 17 21 29 27 23 25 Find the simple exponential smoothing forecast for all the 20 weeks and also forecast the demand for 21" week. Assume a = 0.2 and F₁ = 21. (Round to two decimals)
UltraPure used two different techniques (F1 and F2) to forecast demand for cases of bottled water. Actual demand and the two sets of forecasts are in the table below. PREDICTED DEMAND Period Demand F1 F2 1 68 67 60 2 75 67 67 3 70 71 70 4 74 69 72 5 69 71 77 6 72 70 77 7 80 72 75 8 78 75 83 a. Compute MAD for each set of forecasts. Given your results, which forecast appears to be more accurate? (Round your answers to 2 decimal places.) b. Compute the MSE for each set of forecasts. Given your results, which forecast appears to be more accurate? (Round your answers to 2 decimal places.) c. Compute MAPE for each data set. Which forecast appears to be more accurate? (Round your intermediate calculations to 2 decimal places and and final answers to 2 decimal places.)
UltraPure used two different techniques (F1 and F2) to forecast demand for cases of bottled water. Actual demand and the two sets of forecasts are in the table below. PREDICTED DEMAND Period Demand F1 F2 1 68 67 60 2 75 67 67 3 70 71 70 4 74 69 72 5 69 71 77 6 72 70 77 7 80 72 75 8 78 75 83 a. Compute MAD for each set of forecasts. Given your results, which forecast appears to be more accurate? (Round your answers to 2 decimal places.)
Maria Exports Limited is a major garment export house based on China. The sales figures (in 1000 units) of a particular garment during the past 20 weeks are given in table below. 21.94 23.94 23.68 Week 1 2 3 4 5 23.04 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 BABBE928 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Demand 21 24 18 22 27 23 21 25 5545 27 18 19 Find the simple exponential smoothing forecast for all the 20 weeks and also forecast the demand for 21" week. Assume a = 0.2 and F, = 21. (Round to two decimals) 22 26 24 17 21 29 27 23 25
The following table shows the actual demand observed over the last 11 years: Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Demand 6 8 4 9 13 8 11 14 9 13 7 Part 2 Using exponential smoothing with α = 0.40 and a forecast for year 1 of 5.0, provide the forecast from periods 2 through 12 (round your responses to one decimal place). Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Forecast 5.0 5.45.4 6.46.4 5.55.5 6.96.9 9.39.3 8.88.8 9.79.7 11.411.4 10.410.4 11.511.5 9.79.7 Part 3 Provide the forecast from periods 2 through 12 using the naive approach (enter your responses as whole numbers). Year 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Forecast enter your response here enter your response here enter your response here enter your…
Demand and forecast for 5 months are given below: Month Demand Forecast 1 50 46 2 52 52 3 46 52 4 45 52 5 52 45 Give your answers to three decimal places. Find MSE of this forecast model Find the tracking signal for month 1 month 2 month 3
The following table shows the actual demand observed over the last 11 years: Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Demand 8 8 4 9 12 7 11 14 9 13 8 Part 2 Using exponential smoothing with α = 0.50 and a forecast for year 1 of 7.0, provide the forecast from periods 2 through 12 (round your responses to one decimal place). Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Forecast 7.0 enter your response here enter your response here enter your response here enter your response here enter your response here enter your response here enter your response here enter your response here enter your response here enter your response here enter your response here

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Find the simple exponential smoothing forecast for all the 20 weeks and also forecast the demand for 21" week. Assume a=0.2 and F, 21. (Round to two decimals)