Data collected on the yearly registrations for a Six Sigma seminar at the Quality College are shown in the following table:Year-12Registrations (000) 5.0 5.0YearForecast44.3This exercise contains only parts a and b.a) Using a 3-year moving average, the forecasted registrations (in thousands) for years 4 through 12 are (round yourresponses to one decimal place):54.6433.0566.67845 69 106.0 11.0 9.0 7.0 9.0 13.0 16.0678.789798.3b) Using a 3-year weighted moving average in which the registrations in the most recent year are given a weight of 2,and registrations in the other 2 years are each given a weight of 1, the forecasted registrations (in thousands) for years 4through 12 are (round your responses to one decimal place):YearForecast8109.691112.6101215.3111117.012

Let me state the given data, YearRegistrations1525334651169778991310161117Here, I will apply a…

Answered: Data collected on the yearly…

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter10: Introduction To Simulation Modeling

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 41P: At the beginning of each week, a machine is in one of four conditions: 1 = excellent; 2 = good; 3 =...

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At the beginning of each week, a machine is in one of four conditions: 1 = excellent; 2 = good; 3 = average; 4 = bad. The weekly revenue earned by a machine in state 1, 2, 3, or 4 is 100, 90, 50, or 10, respectively. After observing the condition of the machine at the beginning of the week, the company has the option, for a cost of 200, of instantaneously replacing the machine with an excellent machine. The quality of the machine deteriorates over time, as shown in the file P10 41.xlsx. Four maintenance policies are under consideration: Policy 1: Never replace a machine. Policy 2: Immediately replace a bad machine. Policy 3: Immediately replace a bad or average machine. Policy 4: Immediately replace a bad, average, or good machine. Simulate each of these policies for 50 weeks (using at least 250 iterations each) to determine the policy that maximizes expected weekly profit. Assume that the machine at the beginning of week 1 is excellent.
Chart and Regression analysis : What does the intercept predict? X: C16 (number of cars on the sales lot) versus Y: C17 (cars sold per day) Equation: y=2.9x + 14.5 Slope:2.9 Intercept:14.5 Does the intercept mean the intercept is 14.5 means that the cars sold per day( Y) predicted number of cars on sale lot(X) to be 14.5, but this intercept has no meaning. So, I will not use to predict cars sold per day?
Calculate the Mean Squared Error for the following data: Actual 90 85 96 99 Forecast 91.3 87.6 93.2 98.6 (Keep two decimal places in your answer)
The following data was recorded while observing the increase in the number of butterflies in two different ponds, Pond A and Pond B. Number of Butterflies Present Over 5 Years Year Pond A Pond B 0 50 65 85 1 2 3 4 5 100 O 110 121 133 146 161 110 143 186 What is the rate of growth, r, for each pond and which pond has the fastest average rate of growth over the five years? TA = 1.1, TB = 1.3, mg = 3.72 butterflies/yr TA=0.9, TB=0.8, mg = 3.72 butterflies/yr TA=0.9, TB=0.8, mg=27.2 butterflies/yr TA = 1.1, TB = 1.3, mg=27.2 butterflies/yr
b. The mean absolute deviation as of the end of week 10 is___ rentals enter your response here. (Enter your response rounded to two decimal places.)
Figure shows summer air visibility measurements for Denver, Colorado. The acceptable visibility standard is 100, with readings above 100 indicating clean air and good visibility, and readings below 100 indicating temperature inversions caused by forest fires, volcanic eruptions, or collisions with comets.a. Is a trend evident in the data? Which time-series techniques might be appropriate for estimating the average of these data?b. A medical center for asthma and respiratory diseases located in Denver has great demand for its services when air quality is poor. If you were in charge of developing a short-term (say, 3-day) forecast of visibility, which causal factor(s) would you analyze? In other words, which external factors hold the potential to significantly affect visibility in the short term?c. Tourism, an important factor in Denver’s economy, is affected by the city’s image. Air quality, as measured by visibility, affects the city’s image. If you were responsible for development of…
Calculate the Mean Absolute Percentage Error for the following data: Actual 91 86 87 97 Forecast 91.3 86.3 98.1 99.5 (Keep two decimal places in your answer)
R-charts controls the dispersion of the process Group of answer choices True False Using 3 period moving average forecasting method, find forecast for week 6 (round your answer up). Weeks Actual Number of Patients Forecasted Number of Patients 1 652 2 890 3 728 4 1,006 5 926 6 878 ? Group of answer choices 926 patients 840 patients 937 patients 847 patients 887 patients
The materials handling manager of a manufacturing company is trying to forecast the cost of maintenance for the company's fleet of over-the-road tractors. The manager believes that the cost of maintaining the tractors increases with their age. The following data was collected: Yearly Maintenance Yearly Maintenance Age (years) Age (years) Cost ($) Cost (S) 6.5 819 8.0 1,394 5.5 1,249 2.5 363 6.5 1,233 2.5 382 7.0 695 9.0 964 6.0 923 8.0 1,573 6.0 881 3.0 1,178 7.0 1,090 3.0 666 7.0 1,722 3.0 749 7.5 1,187 a. Use POM for Windows' least squares-linear regression module to develop a relationship to forecast the yearly maintenance cost based on the age of a tractor. (Enter your responses rounded to three decimal places and include a minus sign if necessary.) Y = 365.727 + 110,721 X where Y = Yearly maintenance cost in dollars and X= Age in years. b. If a section has 20 four-year-old tractors, what is the forecast for the annual maintenance cost? $ |- (Enter your response rounded to two…
Given the attached data. Answer the following questions for a 7 period moving average. t At 1 5477 2 3338 3 4799 4 2852 5 6332 6 8385 7 4382 8 4184 9 14229 10 10385 11 11676 12 5271 13 8938 14 9279 15 13990 16 2890 17 13027 18 8970 19 6700 20 7065 21 12491 22 8748 23 8396 24 6102 25 7559 26 7997 27 11981 28 10680 29 5783 30 2501 31 7620 32 10194 33 7908 34 11985 35 5863 36 3024 37 8758 38 1640 39 6569 40 11728 41 6659 42 2830 43 10018 44 8448 45 12409 46 2083 47 6374 48 7438 49 4576 50 4795 MAD = Average(|A-F|) TS =SUM(A-F)/MAD MSE = Average(A-F)2 1. Compute your forecast for period 51. The potential answers are: A: 11221.6 units. B: 12461 units. C: 8020.83 units. D: 4414 units. E: 6589 units.
6. List and explain in detail why we include disturbance term or error term in the model?
Fill the following blanks with appropriate abbreviations supplied: ________ =mean absolute percentage error, ________ = fixed cost, _______ = slope, _______ = correlation coefficient, _______ = smoothing constant, ________ = intercept, _________ = trend smoothing constant, α FC β MAPE b r a

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