OOOOThe Davidson Company sells lumber and wants to decide how much inventory it will need over the next year. There is a significant amount of new construction going on in thecommunity. To assess the need for lumber, The Davidson Company looked at the data for lumber sales over the past several years and based his assumptions for future on pastOdata. This example shows that it's always a risky to predict growth, but a smart technique is toOO a gather data on the income level of the targeted segmentOb obtain sales data in the industry for several years and draw a conclusion through a moving averageO use the census data to see household trendsO d.obtain data on the age of potential home buyers A very general way marketers have approached the analysis of a market is by estimating the purchase decision-making process which includes all of the following elementsEXCEPT:O a. AwarenessO b. TrialOC RepeatO d. Positioning

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Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter13: Regression And Forecasting Models

Section13.3: Simple Regression Models

Problem 9P

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The long-term financial forecast plays a crucial part in the company's long-term strategic plan. True or False True False 25 28 étv N 4
1) Describe a scenario that you have encountered recently as a consumer where a business has either under forecast or iver forecast demand for a product that you were planning to purchase. You will generally notice under forecasting if the product is out of stock or over forecasting if there is excess inventory for the item. Describe the imolications to the retailer,manufacturer, and broader supply chain. You can present your response through thr lens of your own discpline (accounting,mafketing,etc.) if you wish. 2) Give three examples from your life in which you may forecast the future. Highlight the importance of accurate forecasting in the three examples you provide.
The following table shows the past two years of quarterly sales information. Assume that there are both trend and seasonal factors and that the seasonal cycle is one year. QUARTER SALES QUARTER SALES 1. 211 5 155 235 6 198 3 206 7 154 4 190 8 142 Use regression and seasonal indexes to forecast quarterly sales for the next year. (Do n ot round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to the nearest whole number.) Answer is complete but not entirely correct. Quarter Forecast 142 8 157 8 121 8 10 11 12 103
Find the MAD and Tracking signal in below table. Do you think this forecast is acceptable? Why? How many units this company shall keep as the safety stocks if service level is 90%? Period Actual Demand Forecast 220 200 2 300 310 3 400 340 4 340 350 5 280 300 250 270
Suppose that you are asked to forecast future stockprices of ABC Corporation, so you proceed to collectall available information. The day you announce yourforecast, competitors of ABC Corporation announce abrand new plan to merge and reshape the structure ofthe industry. Would your forecast still be consideredoptimal?
The following table shows the past two years of quarterly sales information. Assume that there are both trend and seasonal factors and that the seasonal cycle is one year. QUARTER SALES 1 215 2 240 3 205 4 190 5 160 6 195 7 150 8 140 Use regression and seasonal indexes to forecast quarterly sales for the next year. Note: Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to 1 decimal place.
Demand forecasting helps a company to respond quickly to market changesgiving the firm a competitive advantage. The process of forecasting establishesthe link between planning and control for the company, and facilitates theeffective output of the firm’s goods and services. A common quantitativemethod of forecasting is time series. Explain what is involved in time seriesanalysis and its significance to demand forecasting.
Given the following history, use a three-quarter moving average to forecast the demandfor the third quarter of this year. Note that the 1st quarter is Jan, Feb, and Mar; 2ndquarter Apr, May, Jun; 3rd quarter Jul, Aug, Sep; and 4th quarter Oct, Nov, JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DECLast year 120 140 145 195 205 220 165 155 145 220 245 265This year 140 145 200 210 240 255
Assuming the following deseasonalized demand, what would your Level and Trend FORECAST factors be for future deseasonalized demand estimates? (Hint, you might want to use excel for this) period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 13673 6640 2737 3486 141 13186) 5448 3485 7728 16591 8236 3316 855358 11 12 13 15 16 17 18 19 Demand Deseasonalized D₁ Demand D 3200 7658 4420 2384 3654 8680 5795 1953 4742 20 4472 4657 4956 5074 5157 5917 6646 6850 6791 6573 6363 6308 6932 7887 8662 8989 O Level-4696 Trend-343 O Level-3612. Trend-264 O Level 3629; Trend-263 O Level-2528: Trend-185
A cosmetics manufacturer's marketing department has developed a linear trend equation th its popular Hand & Foot Cream. F = 95,000 + 15,000t Where F = Annual sales t is in years (Enter all answers as whole numbers.) a. Are annual sales increasing or decreasing? By how much? Annual sales are by bottles per year. b. Predict annual sales for year 8 using the equation. Annual sales for year 8 bottles
Brown Limited buys small ornaments and resells them. The production manager got the following data after inventory control check. (a) Use a trend projection to estimate the relationship between time and sales (state the equation). (b) Calculate forecasts for the first four months of the next year. 8 9 10 11 12 Oct Nov Dec 69 75 77 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Sales 51 55 54 57 50 68 66 59 67 (Hint: Month-x, Sale = y)
Engage: Inventory Planning: Forecasting during Uncertainty Inventory Planning: Forecasting During Uncertainty COVID-19 has unleashed unprecedented consumer demand and exposed fractures in the just-in-time supply chain model. In the span of just a few months, your supply chain may have changed drastically. Supplier shutdowns in China. Increased shipping demands. Decreased working capital. These evolving conditions impact your go-forward inventory strategy. Forecasting inventory requirements have always included a mix of past trends, sound predictions, and supplier relationships. But the uncertainties we are facing right now make this process more challenging. This includes Evolving consumer demands Product availability, and Predictable transportation Let's look at these inputs and how they may impact inventory planning. Uncertainties in Consumer Demand Consumer demand is on a roller coaster and the ride doesn’t seem to be slowing down soon. Shelter at home requirements have led…

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