ENGR.ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
14th Edition
ISBN: 9780190931919
Author: NEWNAN
Publisher: Oxford University Press
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- Nonearrow_forwardA buyer wants to purchase a house from a seller. Let v be the quality of this house. The quality v is known to the seller but unobservable to the buyer. The buyer thinks the chance that v=$1k is 20%, v=$10k is 40%, and v=$50k is 40%. The seller’s valuation of the house is v and the buyer’s valuation of the house is 2v a) Suppose both the buyer and the seller see the value of v . Also suppose the transaction price equals the value of v (i.e. if =10k, then the buyer pays 10k for the house). Calculate the buyer’s expected profit before seeing the value of b) Suppose only the seller sees v. Also suppose the buyer is allowed to make any offer to the seller and the seller accepts it if the offered price is above or equals to v. What is the buyer’s profit maximizing offer? What is the buyer’s maximum profit? c) Base on your answers from (a) and (b), what is the value of information (i.e. the benefits of seeing the value of ) to the buyer?arrow_forwardLet b(p,s,t) be the bet that pays out s with probability p and t with probability 1−p. We make the three following statements: S1: The CME for b is the value m such that u(m)=E[u(b(p,s,t))]. S2: A risk averse attitude corresponds to the case CME smaller than E[b(p,s,t))]. S3: A risk seeking attitude corresponds to a convex utility function. Are these statements true or false?arrow_forward
- (b) Assume that utility U is a function of wealth X given by U = X.5 and that X = $1,000,000. In this part of the question, assume that the game ends if the first head has not occurred after 40 tosses of the coin. In that case, the payoff is 240 and the game is over. What is the expected payout of this game?arrow_forwardConsider two companies bidding to be at the top of a search engine's results for a given keyword. Company 1 values the top position at v₁ = 8. Both company 1 and company 2 know company 1's value. However, only company 2 knows its own valuation for the top position, which can take two values: v₂ = 6 or v₂ = 10. Company 1 believes that company 2 has a valuation of ₂ = 6 with probability and a valuation of v2 = 10 with probability. Each company chooses simultaneously whether to submit a bid of b = 6 or a bid of b = 8. The company which submitted the highest bid wins the auction and obtains the top position in the search engine. If both firms submit the same bid, then firm 1 wins the auction. A company's payoff is therefore: V₁ = {o vi- bi if it wins the auction if it loses the auction 1) Suppose that company 2 bids b2 = 6 when v2 = 6 and bids b2 = 8 when v2 = 10. What value of b1 is company 1's best response to this strategy? Hint: explain first in which cases company 1 wins, then give…arrow_forwardBoris and Angela are negotiating a new trade deal, which resembles a modified centipede game. When it is their turn, each of them decides whether to cooperate (C) or to decline (D). Unfortunately, Angela is not sure how much time Boris has for the negotiations before he needs to leave to talk to Emmanuel. With probability p = 4/5, Boris will stay and insist on making the final proposal (long game, L). With probability 1 − p = 1/5, Boris will have to rush off, so that the game ends after Angela’s move (short game, S). Boris has perfect knowledge of his schedule. The structure and payoffs are represented in the game tree below (Attached picture). (a) Specify the set of possible histories H of the game. Underline terminal histories.(b) Specify the set of possible strategies for Boris and Angela.(c) How many subgames does this game have? Indicate all subgames in this gamearrow_forward
- Consider two companies bidding to be at the top of a search engine's results for a given keyword. Company 1 values the top position at v₁ = 8. Both company 1 and company 2 know company 1's value. However, only company 2 knows its own valuation for the top position, which can take two values: v₂ = 6 or v₂ = 10. Company 1 believes that company 2 has a valuation of v2 = 6 with probability and a valuation of v2 = 10 with probability. Each company chooses simultaneously whether to submit a bid of b = 6 or a bid of b = 8. The company which submitted the highest bid wins the auction and obtains the top position in the search engine. If both firms submit the same bid, then firm 1 wins the auction. A company's payoff is therefore: V₁₂ = -{- Vi - bi if it wins the auction if it loses the auction 1) What are the possible types of company 2?arrow_forwardExercise 3: Risky Investment Charlie has von Neumann-Morgenstern utility function u(x) = ln x and has wealth W = 250, 000. She is offered the opportunity to purchase a risky project for price P = 160, 000. 1 1 With probability p = 2 the project will be a success and return V > 160, 000. With probability 1 −p = 2 the project will fail and be worthless (i.e. it returns 0). For simplicity assume there is no interest between the time of the investment and the time of its return, that is r = 0 . How large must V be in order for Charlie to want to purchase the risky project? [Hint: What is Charlie’s expected utility is she does not purchase the project? What is Charlie’s expected utility is she purchases the project?]arrow_forwardSuppose there are two bidders for a single object. Each bidder has a value for the object, v1 and v2, which is randomly drawn uniformly from 0 to 80. (Note that this means the probability that a value is 25 or lower is 25/80, and more generally, the probability that a value is k or lower is k/80). Bidders see their own values but not the values of their rival bidders. Consider a first price sealed bid auction where the winner of the object is the bidder who submits the highest bid and pays the price that he bid. Suppose that you are bidder 1 and you believe that your rival always bids a constant fraction α of his value. (For example, if bidder 2’ value is 15, he will bid 15α.). 1. What is your expected winning probability of the auction from any given bid b1? (Hint, you win the auction when your bid amount b1 is greater than your opponent’s bid). 2. What is your expected payoff from any given bid, b1? (You need to write your answer as a function of v1, b1, and α). 3. Compute your best…arrow_forward
- Transcendent Technologies is deciding between developing a complicated thought- activated software, or a simple voice-activated software. Since the thought-activated software is complicated, it only has a 30% chance of actually going through to a successful launch, but would generate revenues of $50million if launched. The voice-activated software is simple and hence has a 80% chance of being launched but only generates a revenue of $10million. The complicated technology costs 10million, whereas the simple technology costs 2 million. What is the expected profit from developing the complicated software? $10 million $15 million $20 million $5 millionarrow_forwardWhy do sellers generally prefer a Vickrey auction to a regular sealed bid if sellers don’t receive the highest bid in the Vickrey auction? Sellers only have to sell their item if the bid is the highest-price bid. The second-highest bid in a Vickrey auction is generally higher than the highest bid in a regular sealed-bid auction. The second-highest bid is about the same in both auctions. Sellers prefer the final price is not revealed to all bidders. Sellers would never prefer Vickrey auctions.arrow_forwardSoft selling occurs when a buyer is skeptical of the usefulness of a product and the seller offers to set a price that depends on realized value. For example, suppose a sales representative is trying to sell a company a new accounting system that will, with certainty, reduce costs by 10%. However, the customer has heard this claim before and believes there is only a 30% chance of actually realizing that cost reduction and a 70% chance of realizing no cost reduction. Assume the customer has an initial total cost of $300. According to the customer's beliefs, the expected value of the accounting system, or the expected reduction in cost, is . Suppose the sales representative initially offers the accounting system to the customer for a price of $19.50. The information asymmetry stems from the fact that the has more information about the efficacy of the accounting system than does the . At this price, the customer purchase the accounting system, since the expected…arrow_forward
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