4. Evaluate the decision tree as shown in below figure. $30,000 60% $120,000 50% 40% $200,000 10% $300.000 50% 80% $500,000 10%
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- Lakewood Fashions must decide how many lots of assorted ski wear to order for its three stores. Information on pricing, sales, and inventory costs has led to the following payoff table, in thousands. Order size 2 lots 1 lot 1 lot 3 lots (a) Show a regret table. Order size 2 lots 3 lots Low 13 9 6 Low Demand Medium 16 23 38 High 16 38 61 Demand Medium (b) What decision should be made by the optimist? O 1 lot O2 lots O 3 lots (c) What decision should be made by the conservative? O 1 lot O 2 lots O3 lots (d) What decision should be made using minimax regret? O 1 lot O2 lots O 3 lots High Maximum RegretA shop will decide to sell either product A or B or C in the coming season. Demand in that season can be high, average or low. Payoff table below shows the related returns in TL. You will create your own data for Product B row:)) States of nature Alternatives High demand Average demand Low demand Product A 2000 1000 -200 Product B Product C 1000 500 400 a. What would be the decision according to Minimax Regret? b. What is the maximum amount of money the company should pay for perfect information? (Assign probabilities for high, average and low demand)A summary of total charges from a small café’s natural gas bills is provided below: Month kJ Cost October 14 $187 November 17 187 December 30 230 January 35 264 February 33 270 March 20 200 Using regression analysis, the expected cost at 40 kJ would be Question 5Answer a. $296 b. $285 c. $102 d. $162
- Calculate the EUAC of a company If P = 1000$, n = 10 years and i = 10%. Select one: O a. 163$ O b. 160$ O c. 150$Determine which factor of production is needed in the following problem. 1.The ABM manufacturing Co.hired a gardener.He uses a lawn mower for landscaping.Which factor of production would you consider this machine? 2.The owner of the company withdrew cash for the salaries of thw employees.which factor of production would you consider cash on hand? 3.The top manager of the firm said "the great ideas,consepts and emotional determination of a person to produce something that consumers want to buy" is very important for the company.What factor of production describes the ability to create great ideas? 4.The farmers planted pineapple cutting in the vacant area located in their locality.Which factor of production would you consider a pineapple plantation?b) Perform Goal Seek Analysis in Excel, Technique of Model Driven Decision Support System. Using goal seek analysis technique of Model Driven Decision Support System, predict the number of pizza to be sold in a day to achieve the total income of Rs 272000/= while excluding all expenses like cost per Pizza (RS. 1000), salary per person (Rs. 1000 per day) we have 3 employees, shop rent per day (Rs. 2000) and 5% Tax. Price of a pizza is fixed to Rs 2500. Formulas on answer sheet as well.
- Seneca Hill Winery recently purchased land for the purpose of establishing a new vineyard. Management is considering two varieties of white grapes for the new vineyard: Chardonnay and Riesling. The Chardonnay grapes would be used to produce a dry Chardonnay wine, and the Riesling grapes would be used to produce a semidry Riesling wine. It takes approximately four years from the time of planting before new grapes can be harvested. This length of time creates a great deal of uncertainty concerning future demand and makes the decision concerning the type of grapes to plant difficult. Three possibilities are being considered: Chardonnay grapes only; Riesling grapes only; and both Chardonnay and Riesling grapes. Seneca management decided that for planning purposes it would be adequate to consider only two demand possibilities for each type of wine: strong or weak. With two possibilities for each type of wine it was necessary to assess four probabilities. With the help of some forecasts in…A summary of total charges from a small café's natural gas bills is provided below: Month KJ Cost October 14 $187 November 17 187 December 30 230 January 35 264 February 33 270 20 200 March Using regression analysis, the expected cost at 40 kJ would be a. $296 b. $285 c. $102 d. $162c. From the following decision tree, develop a payoff table and calculate: * Maximax, Minimax regret, Maximin, and EMV. ORs. 50,000 Good conditions (0.60) Poor conditions (0.40) -O Rs. 30,000 Apartment Building Good conditions (0.60) O Rs. 100,000 Office building Poor conditions (0.40) Purchase ORs -40,000 Warchouse Good conditions (0.60) Rs.30, 000 Poor conditions (0.40) O Rs. 10,000
- 3. The manager for a manufacturing company must recommend whether to construct a large plant, construct a small plant or do nothing. He estimates the long-run profits in $ as follows: State of Nature Alternative Good Average Poor Market($) Market ($) Market ($) Construct a 100,000 35,000 -60,000 large plant Construct a 75,000 25,000 -40,000 small plant Do nothing -5,000 0 0 Probability 25% 50% 25% Solve using: A. Expected Opportunity Loss B. Expected Value of Perfect InformationPayoff Table Decision Alternatives Demand Low Medium High Small, d1 400 500 600 Medium, d2 100 600 800 Large, d3 -300 400 1200 1). If nothing is known about the demand probabilities, what are the recommended decision using the Maximax (optimistic), Maximin (pessimistic) and Equally Likely? 2). If P(low) = 0.20, P(medium) = 0.35, and P(high) = 0.45. What is the recommended decision using the expected monetary value approach? 3). What is the expected value of perfect information (EVPI)?B 8,000 A 4,000 10,000 20,000 Disposable income Figure 1.2 2) Refer to Figure 1.2. The slope of the line between Points A and B is A) 0.4. C) 2.5. B) 1.2. D) indeterminate from this information. Consumption
