preview

The Effects Of Climate Change On Africa 's Security Environment Essay

Better Essays

The Lacuna in the Climate-Conflict Literature
The extant literature shows two trends. First, a few large-N studies which showed strong correlations between climate and conflict used civil war datasets as the measure of the outcome variable. The use of an aggregated country level civil war data may be missing the most important features of the accuracy, degree, and severity of the impact of climate change on Africa’s security environment. The use of civil war and political violence datasets to capture the impact of climate change may produce misleading outcomes. Unlike civil conflict and political violence, climate-related conflicts may be mirroring the ebb and flow of climatic conditions. Different from civil wars and political violence, climate-related conflicts may become intense during the drier months and recede during the rainy or wet months of the year. Using aggregated country-level civil war datasets to measure climate-induced conflicts misses the important nuances we need to determine cause and effect—the causation linking climate change to violent conflict, and exposes such analysis to the ecological fallacy trap. The drawback of using aggregated data has been addressed by studies using sub-state, micro-level data, and case studies. Most of the studies that used sub-state data also reported connections between climate and conflict, and most were situated in the Horn of Africa or in countries with histories of volatilities. Finally, there are those who suggested

Get Access