Given the following profit payoff table, which decision would you choose based on a cautious decision approach? S1 $2 $3 d₁ 50 20 -10 d2 80 30 -20 d3 100 30 -40 d4 300 25 25 -160 O d₁ d2 Od₁ and d3 Od3 d4
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- The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars): Decision State of Nature Alternative Low Demand (S1) Medium Demand (S2) High Demand )S3) Manufacture, d(1) -20 40 100 Purchase, d(2) 10 45 70 The state-of-nature probabilities are P s1= 0.35, P s2= 0.35, and P s3= 0.30 Use expected value to recommend a decision.3. The manager for a manufacturing company must recommend whether to construct a large plant, construct a small plant or do nothing. He estimates the long-run profits in $ as follows: State of Nature Alternative Good Average Poor Market($) Market ($) Market ($) Construct a 100,000 35,000 -60,000 large plant Construct a 75,000 25,000 -40,000 small plant Do nothing -5,000 0 0 Probability 25% 50% 25% Solve using: A. Expected Opportunity Loss B. Expected Value of Perfect InformationThe preference of an agents on lotteries can be represented by an expected utility function u such that u(x) = 3y^1/2 -10. Then the agent is A) not risk averse B) risk loving C) risk neutral D) risk averse E) NOPAC
- Refer to the payoff table below of profits in ($000). Which decision alternative results from using the Conservative (Pessimestic) Decision Rule? PAYOFF TABLE High Demand Small Medium Large 35 300 550 -10 Moderate Demand 35 150 75 -10 Low Demand Do Nothing O A. Large O B. Do nothing OC. Medium O D. Small O E. Cannot be determined since relative frequencies are missing. 35 50 -45 -10The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars): state of nature low demand medium demnad high demand Decision alternative s1 s2 s3 manufacture d1 -20 40 100 purchase d2 10 45 70 The state-of-nature probabilities are P(s1) = 0.35, P(s2) = 0.35, and P(s3) = 0.30. a. A test market study of the potential demand for the product is expected to report either a favourable (F) or unfavourable (U) condition. The relevant conditional probabilities are as follows: P(F|S1)=0.10 P (U|S1)=0.90 P(F|S2)=0.40 P (U|S2)=0.60 P(F|S3)=0.60 P (U|S3)=0.40 Decision tree leading to market study/ prediction of favorable…Very Favorable Average Market Unfavorable Alternatives Market Market Build new plant $250,000 $180.000 - S200,000 Subcontract $270.000 $185,000 - $220,000 Overtime S100.000 $50,000 - $12.000 Do Nothing SO SO $0 a) Using the decision making under uncertainty with the criterion of Maximax The appropriate decision will be The value of the return under this decision is $ b) Using the decision making under uncertainty with the criterion of Maximin The appropriate decision will be The value of the return under this decision is $ c) Using the decision making under uncertainty with the criterion of Equally Likely The appropriate decision will be The value of the return under this decision is $ (enter your answer as a whole number).
- The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars): state of nature low demand medium demnad high demand Decision alternative s1 s2 s3 manufacture d1 -20 40 100 purchase d2 10 45 70 The state-of-nature probabilities are P(s1) = 0.35, P(s2) = 0.35, and P(s3) = 0.30. a. A test market study of the potential demand for the product is expected to report either a favourable (F) or unfavourable (U) condition. The relevant conditional probabilities are as follows: P(F|S1)=0.10 P (U|S1)=0.90 P(F|S2)=0.40 P (U|S2)=0.60 P(F|S3)=0.60 P (U|S3)=0.40 Compute the probabilities by completing the table Sate of…The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars): state of nature low demand medium demnad high demand Decision alternative s1 s2 s3 manufacture d1 -20 40 100 purchase d2 10 45 70 The state-of-nature probabilities are P(s1) = 0.35, P(s2) = 0.35, and P(s3) = 0.30. a. A test market study of the potential demand for the product is expected to report either a favourable (F) or unfavourable (U) condition. The relevant conditional probabilities are as follows: P(F|S1)=0.10 P (U|S1)=0.90 P(F|S2)=0.40 P (U|S2)=0.60 P(F|S3)=0.60 P (U|S3)=0.40 A.Compute the probabilities by completing the table Sate of…The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars): state of nature low demand medium demnad high demand Decision alternative s1 s2 s3 manufacture d1 -20 40 100 purchase d2 10 45 70 The state-of-nature probabilities are P(s1) = 0.35, P(s2) = 0.35, and P(s3) = 0.30. a.Use expected value to recommend a decision. b.Use EVPI to determine whether Gorman should attempt to obtain a better estimate of demand.
- A. A company wants to produce a souvenir with a marketing life of six months. Uncertainty surrounds the likely sales volume as well as the fixed costs of the venture as shown below: Sales units Probability Contrn. /unit Probability Fixed cost K7 K5 100 000 0.3 80 000 0.6 60 000 0.1 1.0 0.5 0.5 1.0 Determine the expected value of the contribution K400 000 K450 000 K500 000 Probability 0.2 0.5 0.3 1.0A decision tree is a graphic display of the decision process that indicates decision alternatives, states of nature and their respective probabilities, and payoffs for each combination of alternative and states of nature. O True O False * Previous Next ► MacBook Air 000 000 DD F7 セゴ F5 $ & レ 9 * 00A situation in which a decision maker must choose between strategies that have more than one possible outcome when the probability of each outcome is unknown is referred to as: O certainty diversification risk O uncertainty MacBook Air 000 000 DD F7 F5 6日 5. 8.