Operations Management
11th Edition
ISBN: 9780132921145
Author: Jay Heizer
Publisher: PEARSON
expand_more
expand_more
format_list_bulleted
Concept explainers
Videos
Textbook Question
Chapter A, Problem 20P
Philip Musa can build either a large video rental section or a small one in his Birmingham drugstore. He can also gather additional information or simply do nothing. If he gathers additional information, the results could suggest either a favorable or an unfavorable market, but it would cost him $3,000 to gather the information. Musa believes that there is a 50−50 chance that the information will be favorable. If the rental market is favorable, Musa will earn $15,000 with a large section or $5,000 with a small. With an unfavorable video-rental market, however, Musa could lose $20,000 with a large section or $10,000 with a small section. Without gathering additional information, Musa estimates that the probability of a favorable rental market is .7. A favorable report from the study would increase the probability of a favorable rental market to .9. Furthermore, an unfavorable report from the additional information would decrease the probability of a favorable rental market to .4. Of course, Musa could ignore these numbers and do nothing. What is your advice to Musa?
Expert Solution & Answer
Want to see the full answer?
Check out a sample textbook solution
Students have asked these similar questions
XYZ work in a small electric business in Basrah city. He had a
sunshine controller device. He had to decide how to market his
idea, and in the short term, his options could be summarised as
selling the device locally, selling nationally through a website,
entering a partnership with an existing company or selling the
patent. His returns depended on demand, which he described
as high, medium, or low.
Using this simple model, he developed the matrix of potential
annual gains shown below:
Options
Demand
High
Medium
Low
Market locally
60
90
45
Use website
23
90
78
Partnership
12
25
89
Sell patent
30
30
30
Identify the decision taken under
the following approaches:
(1) Equal probability
(2) Regret
(3) Hurwicz criterion.
Note: The decision maker's degree of Pessimistic (a) is 0.3.
A salesperson uses three different airlines. The probabilities of switching from one airline to another in consecutive flights are shown below.
If the last flight was on Delta, what is the probability that the next was on American?
American
Delta
Southwest
American
0.5
0.25
0.25
Delta
0.2
0.6
0.2
Southwest
0.3
0.3
0.4
A
0.5
B
0.2
C
0.25
D
0.6
The number of people visiting the hospital emergency room for chest pains
increased as the stock market dropped in 2008 & 2009. The drop in the stock
market is probably partly responsible for this increase.
Two Things Being Correlated
(in the premises)
:
How They're Purportedly Correlated:
Conclusion Argued For
(in the conclusion)
:
Any Plausible Alternate Explanations?
(yes or no)
:
If so, what?
(spurious coincidence, common cause, reversed)
:
Explain this Alternate Explanation:
Overall Quality of Argument
(good or bad)
:
Chapter A Solutions
Operations Management
Ch. A - Prob. 1DQCh. A - Prob. 2DQCh. A - Prob. 3DQCh. A - Prob. 4DQCh. A - Prob. 5DQCh. A - Question: 6. Explain how decision trees might be...Ch. A - Prob. 7DQCh. A - Prob. 8DQCh. A - Question 9. Identify the five steps in analyzing a...Ch. A - Prob. 10DQ
Ch. A - Question 11. The expected value criterion is...Ch. A - Question 12. When are decision trees most useful?Ch. A - Given the following conditional value table,...Ch. A - Prob. 2PCh. A - Prob. 3PCh. A - Jeffrey Helm owns a health and fitness center...Ch. A - Prob. 5PCh. A - Prob. 6PCh. A - Prob. 7PCh. A - Prob. 8PCh. A - Prob. 9PCh. A - Prob. 10PCh. A - The University of Miami bookstore stocks textbooks...Ch. A - Palmer Jam Company is a small manufacturer of...Ch. A - Prob. 13PCh. A - Prob. 14PCh. A - Prob. 15PCh. A - Prob. 16PCh. A - Prob. 17PCh. A - Prob. 18PCh. A - Prob. 19PCh. A - Philip Musa can build either a large video rental...Ch. A - Prob. 21PCh. A - Prob. 22PCh. A - Prob. 23PCh. A - Question A.24 On the opening page of Module A and...Ch. A - Question Warehouse Tenting at the Port of Miami...Ch. A - Question Warehouse Tenting at the Port of Miami...Ch. A - Question Warehouse Tenting at the Port of Miami...
Knowledge Booster
Learn more about
Need a deep-dive on the concept behind this application? Look no further. Learn more about this topic, operations-management and related others by exploring similar questions and additional content below.Similar questions
- Play Things is developing a new Lady Gaga doll. The company has made the following assumptions: The doll will sell for a random number of years from 1 to 10. Each of these 10 possibilities is equally likely. At the beginning of year 1, the potential market for the doll is two million. The potential market grows by an average of 4% per year. The company is 95% sure that the growth in the potential market during any year will be between 2.5% and 5.5%. It uses a normal distribution to model this. The company believes its share of the potential market during year 1 will be at worst 30%, most likely 50%, and at best 60%. It uses a triangular distribution to model this. The variable cost of producing a doll during year 1 has a triangular distribution with parameters 15, 17, and 20. The current selling price is 45. Each year, the variable cost of producing the doll will increase by an amount that is triangularly distributed with parameters 2.5%, 3%, and 3.5%. You can assume that once this change is generated, it will be the same for each year. You can also assume that the company will change its selling price by the same percentage each year. The fixed cost of developing the doll (which is incurred right away, at time 0) has a triangular distribution with parameters 5 million, 7.5 million, and 12 million. Right now there is one competitor in the market. During each year that begins with four or fewer competitors, there is a 25% chance that a new competitor will enter the market. Year t sales (for t 1) are determined as follows. Suppose that at the end of year t 1, n competitors are present (including Play Things). Then during year t, a fraction 0.9 0.1n of the company's loyal customers (last year's purchasers) will buy a doll from Play Things this year, and a fraction 0.2 0.04n of customers currently in the market ho did not purchase a doll last year will purchase a doll from Play Things this year. Adding these two provides the mean sales for this year. Then the actual sales this year is normally distributed with this mean and standard deviation equal to 7.5% of the mean. a. Use @RISK to estimate the expected NPV of this project. b. Use the percentiles in @ RISKs output to find an interval such that you are 95% certain that the companys actual NPV will be within this interval.arrow_forwardThe Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars): Decision State of Nature Alternative Low Demand (S1) Medium Demand (S2) High Demand )S3) Manufacture, d(1) -20 40 100 Purchase, d(2) 10 45 70 The state-of-nature probabilities are P s1= 0.35, P s2= 0.35, and P s3= 0.30 Use expected value to recommend a decision.arrow_forwardCost Estimation; High-Low and Regression Methods The Mac Davis Company specializesin the purchase, renovation, and resale of older homes. Mac employs several carpenters and paintersto do the work for him. It is essential for him to have accurate cost estimates so he can determinetotal renovation costs before he purchases a piece of property. If estimated renovation costs plus thepurchase price of a house are higher than the house’s estimated resale value, it is not a worthwhileinvestment.Mac has been using the home’s interior square feet for his exterior paint cost estimations. Recentlyhe decided to include the number of external openings—the total number of doors and windows ina house—as a cost driver. Their cost is significant because they require time-consuming preparatorywork and careful brushwork. The rest of the house usually is painted either by rollers or spray guns,which are relatively efficient ways to apply paint to a large area. Mac has kept careful records of theseexterior…arrow_forward
- This type of analysis is most appropriate when the past is a good predictor of the future.arrow_forwardDonald Harris received a windfall and needs to invest it for tax reasons. He went to his brother-in-law, Joe Harris, who is a financial advisor. Joe prepared a matrix that illustrated the possible returns on investment for different investment strategies under different economic conditions. That matrix is given below. Donald Harris reads the Wall Drive Journal and came across an article that stated that the probability that there would be a major downturn would be 10%; the probability of a downturn would be 30%; the probability of an upturn would be 40%; and that the probability of a major upturn would be 20%. Based on these numbers, what investment strategy should Donald Harris adopt? Future Air Traffic Strategies Major Downturn Downturn Upturn Major Upturn Contrarian 20% 10% 5% -15% Risk Averse 2% 4% 7% 10% Growth -10% -8% 13% 20% Aggressive -25% -20% 11% 35% Group of answer choicesarrow_forwardA. A company wants to produce a souvenir with a marketing life of six months. Uncertainty surrounds the likely sales volume as well as the fixed costs of the venture as shown below: Sales units Probability Contrn. /unit Probability Fixed cost K7 K5 100 000 0.3 80 000 0.6 60 000 0.1 1.0 0.5 0.5 1.0 Determine the expected value of the contribution K400 000 K450 000 K500 000 Probability 0.2 0.5 0.3 1.0arrow_forward
- Please do not give solution in image format thankuarrow_forwardNew York City is the most expensive city in the United States for lodging. The mean hotel room rate is $204 per night (USA Today, April 30, 2012). Assume that room rates are normally distributed with a standard deviation of $55. Use Table 1 in Appendix B. a. What is the probability that a hotel room costs $225 or more per night (to 4 decimals)? b. What is the probability that a hotel room costs less than $140 per night (to 4 decimals)? c. What is the probability that a hotel room costs between $200 and $300 per night (to 4 decimals)? d. What is the cost of the 20% most expensive hotel rooms in New York City? Round up to the next dollar. or - Select your answer - ♥arrow_forwardUse the below formula to calculate the CLV for the following: A manager of a cable company wants to determine if it is strategic to acquire the Brett family, by estimating their household-level CLV. The manager estimates that it will cost the company $80 (A) to get the Bretts’ to switch, and the Bretts’ will generate $150 profit each year (M), with a $30 annual marketing cost to retain them (C). The estimated retention rate (r) is 65%, and the current discount rate is 5%.(d) i) CLV= ii) Based on your calculation, are the Brett’s profitable to the cable company?arrow_forward
- Your answer is partially correct. An independent contractor for a transportation company needs to determine whether she should upgrade the vehicle she currently owns or trade her vehicle in to lease a new vehicle. If she keeps her vehicle, she will need to invest in immediate upgrades that cost $5,200 and it will cost $1,300 per year to operate at the end of year that follows. She will keep the vehicle for 5 years; at the end of this period, the upgraded vehicle will have a salvage value of $3,800. Alternatively, she could trade in her vehicle to lease a new vehicle. She estimates that her current vehicle has a trade-in value of $9,800 and that there will be $4,100 due at lease signing. She further estimates that it will cost $2,900 per year to lease and operate the vehicle. The independent contractor's MARR is 11%. Compute the EUAC of both the upgrade and lease alternatives using the insider perspective. Click here to access the TVM Factor Table Calculator. 1943.56 EUAC(keep): $…arrow_forwardThe Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars): state of nature low demand medium demnad high demand Decision alternative s1 s2 s3 manufacture d1 -20 40 100 purchase d2 10 45 70 The state-of-nature probabilities are P(s1) = 0.35, P(s2) = 0.35, and P(s3) = 0.30. a. A test market study of the potential demand for the product is expected to report either a favourable (F) or unfavourable (U) condition. The relevant conditional probabilities are as follows: P(F|S1)=0.10 P (U|S1)=0.90 P(F|S2)=0.40 P (U|S2)=0.60 P(F|S3)=0.60 P (U|S3)=0.40 Compute the probabilities by completing the table Sate of…arrow_forwardThe Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars): state of nature low demand medium demnad high demand Decision alternative s1 s2 s3 manufacture d1 -20 40 100 purchase d2 10 45 70 The state-of-nature probabilities are P(s1) = 0.35, P(s2) = 0.35, and P(s3) = 0.30. a. A test market study of the potential demand for the product is expected to report either a favourable (F) or unfavourable (U) condition. The relevant conditional probabilities are as follows: P(F|S1)=0.10 P (U|S1)=0.90 P(F|S2)=0.40 P (U|S2)=0.60 P(F|S3)=0.60 P (U|S3)=0.40 A.Compute the probabilities by completing the table Sate of…arrow_forward
arrow_back_ios
arrow_forward_ios
Recommended textbooks for you
Practical Management ScienceOperations ManagementISBN:9781337406659Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.Publisher:Cengage,
Practical Management Science
Operations Management
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:Cengage,
Single Exponential Smoothing & Weighted Moving Average Time Series Forecasting; Author: Matt Macarty;https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IjETktmL4Kg;License: Standard YouTube License, CC-BY
Introduction to Forecasting - with Examples; Author: Dr. Bharatendra Rai;https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=98K7AG32qv8;License: Standard Youtube License