EBK OM
EBK OM
6th Edition
ISBN: 9781305888210
Author: Collier
Publisher: YUZU
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Chapter 9, Problem 6PA

(a)

Summary Introduction

Interpretation: Data needs to be plotted and analyzed about the time series.

Concept Introduction: The moving average method takes the average of the recent number of observations in any time series. The average is taken based on the k number of previous observations.

(b)

Summary Introduction

Interpretation: The forecast for week 16, using a two period moving averages needs to be calculated.

Concept Introduction: The moving average method takes the average of the recent number of observations in any time series. The average is taken based on the k number of previous observations.

(c)

Summary Introduction

Interpretation: The forecast for week 16, using a three period moving averages needs to be calculated.

Concept Introduction: The moving average method takes the average of the recent number of observations in any time series. The average is taken based on the k number of previous observations.

(d)

Summary Introduction

Interpretation: Mean Square error needs to be calculated for two and three period using moving average model

Concept Introduction: The moving average method takes the average of the recent number of observations in any time series. The average is taken based on the k number of previous observations.

(e)

Summary Introduction

Interpretation: The best number of periods for the moving average model needs to be determined based on MSE.

Concept Introduction: The moving average method takes the average of the recent number of observations in any time series. The average is taken based on the k number of previous observations.

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A restaurant wants to forecast its weekly sales.  Historical data (in dollars) for 15 weeks are shown in this Excel file  (also shown in Problem 6 on page 243 in the textbook). Answer the following questions related to this information: Provide insight about the time series.  What are the trends and stability of the data? What is the forecast for Week 16, using a two-period moving average?  (use cell B6 for number of periods) What is the forecast for Week 16, using a three-period moving average?  (use cell B6 for number of periods) What is the MSE for the two- and three-period moving average models?  Compare the results. Find the best number of periods for the moving average model based on MSE.
Based on the following equation for a moving average forecast, what would have been the three week moving average forecast for week 53 for Small Town Restaurant (see downloaded file for actual demand)? Provide two decimal places and use normal rounding.   What happens if we increase the time periods in our moving average forecast to six weeks opposed to three? Group of answer choices It would be more accurate because it includes more data. There would be no change. It would be less sensitive to changes. It would be better at predicting a trend.
Sales of tablet computers at Marika Gonzalez's electronics store in Washington, D.C., over the past 10 weeks are shown in the table below: 2 Week 1 Demand 19 23 Week 1 Demand 19 Forecast 19.0 3 27 2 23 4 36 3 27 5 6 24 28 37 4 36 a) The forecast for weeks 2 through 10 using exponential smoothing with a = 0.50 and a week 1 initial forecast of 19.0 are (round your responses to two decimal places): 5 24 6 28 8 20 7 37 9 26 8 20 10 29 9 26 D 10 29
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