Essentials of Business Analytics (MindTap Course List)
2nd Edition
ISBN: 9781305627734
Author: Jeffrey D. Camm, James J. Cochran, Michael J. Fry, Jeffrey W. Ohlmann, David R. Anderson
Publisher: Cengage Learning
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Textbook Question
Chapter 8, Problem 5P
Consider the following time series data:
- a. Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data?
- b. Develop a three-week moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7.
- c. Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7.
- d. Compare the three-week moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using α = 0.2. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE? Explain.
- e. Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing coefficient α that results in a smaller MSE than what you calculated for α = 0.2.
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For the Texas Shipping Company, the monthly percentages of all shipments received on time over the past 12 months are 82, 86, 87, 89, 84, 85, 84, 86, 75, 95,
90, and 92.
a. Construct a time series plot (you can include it in the work file question at the end, not here). Identify what type of pattern, if any, exists in the data?
Compare the three-month moving average forecast with an exponential smoothing forecast for alpha= 0.25 and answer the following:
b. MSE for 3-month moving average method
c. MSE for exponential-smoothing method :
d. Which method should be preferred? Answer "3-month MA" or "Exponential Smoothing":
e. What is the forecast for next month using the preferred method?
consider the following time series data.Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7Value 24 13 20 12 19 23 15construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data?a. develop the three-week moving average forecasts for this time series. compute MSeand a forecast for week 8.b. Use a = .2 to compute the exponential smoothing forecasts for the time series. compute MSe and a forecast for week 8.c. compare the three-week moving average approach with the exponential smoothing approach using a = .2. Which appears to provide more accurate forecasts based on MSe?d. Use a smoothing constant of a = .4 to compute the exponential smoothing forecasts.does a smoothing constant of .2 or .4 appear to provide more accurate forecasts basedon MSe? explain
Consider the following time series data.
Month
2
3 4 5 6 7
Value
24 13 20 12 19 23 15
Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data?
Develop the three-week moving average forecasts for this time series. Compute MSE
and a forecast for week 8.
b. Use a = .2 to compute the exponential smoothing forecasts for the time series. Com-
pute MSE and a forecast for week 8.
Compare the three-week moving average approach with the exponential smoothing ap-
proach using a = .2. Which appears to provide more accurate forecasts based on MSE?
d. Use a smoothing constant of a = .4 to compute the exponential smoothing forecasts.
Does a smoothing constant of .2 or .4 appear to provide more accurate forecasts based
on MSE? Explain.
Chapter 8 Solutions
Essentials of Business Analytics (MindTap Course List)
Ch. 8 - Consider the following time series data:
Using...Ch. 8 - Refer to the time series data in Problem 1. Using...Ch. 8 - Problems 1 and 2 used different forecasting...Ch. 8 - Consider the following time series data:
Compute...Ch. 8 - Consider the following time series...Ch. 8 - Consider the following time series...Ch. 8 - Refer to the gasoline sales time series data in...Ch. 8 - Prob. 8PCh. 8 - Prob. 9PCh. 8 - Prob. 10P
Ch. 8 - For the Hawkins Company, the monthly percentages...Ch. 8 - Corporate triple A bond interest rates for 12...Ch. 8 - The values of Alabama building contracts (in...Ch. 8 - The following time series shows the sales of a...Ch. 8 - Prob. 15PCh. 8 - The following table reports the percentage of...Ch. 8 - Consider the following time series: a. Construct a...Ch. 8 - Consider the following time series:
Construct a...Ch. 8 - Because of high tuition costs at state and private...Ch. 8 - The Seneca Children’s Fund (SCF) is a local...Ch. 8 - The president of a small manufacturing firm is...Ch. 8 - Consider the following time series: a. Construct a...Ch. 8 - Consider the following time series...Ch. 8 - The quarterly sales data (number of copies sold)...Ch. 8 - Prob. 25PCh. 8 - South Shore Construction builds permanent docks...Ch. 8 - Hogs & Dawgs is an ice cream parlor on the border...Ch. 8 - Donna Nickles manages a gasoline station on the...Ch. 8 - The Vintage Restaurant, on Captiva Island near...
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