Concept explainers
The authors of the paper “Do Physicians Know When Their Diagnoses Are Correct?” (Journal of General Internal Medicine [2005]: 334-339) presented detailed case studies to medical students and to faculty at medical schools. Each participant was asked to provide a diagnosis in the case and also to indicate whether his or her confidence in the correctness of the diagnosis was high or low. Define the events C, I, and H as follows:
C =
I = event that diagnosis is incorrect
H = event that confidence in the correctness of the diagnosis is high
- a. Data appearing in the paper were used to estimate the following probabilities for medical students:
Use Bayes’ rule to calculate the
- b. Data from the paper were also used to estimate the following probabilities for medical school faculty:
Calculate P(C|H) for medical school faculty. How does the value of this probability compare to the value of P(C|H) for students computed in Part (a)?
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Chapter 6 Solutions
Introduction To Statistics And Data Analysis
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