Concept explainers
A
Interpretation:Determine the busiest and also the least busy day of the week, considering the unique appearances of the website.
Concept Introduction: Most of the
B
Interpretation:Observe the unique appearances for Monday and Tuesday, and de-seasonalise them, and provide your comments on Monday and Tuesday in last week.
Concept Introduction:Most of the forecasting methods are based on the past performances of another organization in the similar industry. The process involved in the predicting of future occurrences is call forecasting.
C
Interpretation:Considering the given estimates, provide the most logical estimate for the unique appearances on Thursday and Friday of the week.
Concept Introduction: Most of the forecasting methods are based on the past performances of another organization in the similar industry. The process involved in the predicting of future occurrences is call forecasting.
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Practical Operations Management
- Under what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?arrow_forwardThe director of the Riley County, Kansas, library system would like to forecast evening patron usage for next week. Below are the data for the past 4 weeks: Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Week 1 210 178 250 215 160 180 Week 2 215 180 250 213 165 185 Week 3 220 176 260 220 175 190 Week 4 225 178 260 225 176 190 a) Calculate a seasonal index for each day of the week (enter your responses rounded to three decimal places). Day of the week Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Seasonal indexarrow_forwardWhich forecasting model assumes that what will happen in the immediately succeeding period is most likely similar to what happened this period than to that of, say, three periods ago?arrow_forward
- The accompanying dataset shows the monthly number of new car sales in the last two years. Implement the Holt-Winters multiplicative seasonality model with trend. Find the best combination of a, ß, and y to minimize MSE. a = 0.2, B = 1, y =0.2; a = 0.6, ß = 0.4, y = 0.6 E Click the icon to view the new car sales data. First find the MSE for each set of values, a, B, and y. (Round to the nearest whole number as needed.) MSE 0.2 1 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.6arrow_forwardThe following gives the number of accidents thatoccurred on Florida State Highway 101 during the past 4 months: Forecast the number of accidents that will occur in May,using least-squares regression to derive a trend equation.arrow_forwardAmong the following forecasting techniques, which one utilizes both past time period forecast and past time period actual demand to calculate the forecasted demand? Weighted Moving Average Simple Moving Average Naive Method Exponential Smoothingarrow_forward
- Following data on the demand for sewing machines manufactured by Taylor and Son Co. have been compiled for the past 10 years. Year 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 78 1976 1977 1978 1979 99 1980 106 Demand 58 65 73 76 87 88 93 in (1000 units) Please estimate the value of demand for next 3 years using trend analysis.arrow_forwardProfessor Z needs to allocate time among several tasks next week to include time for students' appointments. Thus, he needs to forecast the number of students who will seek appointments. He has gathered the following data: Week Number of students6 Weeks ago 515 Weeks ago 794 Weeks ago 833 Weeks ago 892 Weeks ago 71Last Week 93 What is this week's forecast using exponential smoothing with alpha = 0.3 , if the forecast for two weeks ago was 77 ? a. 75.2 b. 78.8 c. 69.86 d. 80.54arrow_forwardWhat are the advantages of exponential smoothing over the moving average and the weighted moving average?arrow_forward
- Quantitative forecasting should be preferred over qualitative forecasting since they involve computations and are, therefore, more accurate. True Falsearrow_forwardWhat advantages does adjusted exponential smoothing have over a linear trend line for forecasted demand that exhibits a trend?arrow_forwardHarlen Industries has a simple forecasting model: Take the actual demand for the same month last year and divide that by the number of fractional weeks in that month. This gives the average weekly demand for that month. This weekly average is used as the weekly forecast for the same month this year. This technique was used to forecast eight weeks for this year, which are shown in the following tables along with the actual demand that occurred. The following eight weeks show the forecast (based on last year) and the demand that actually occurred (picture attached): Calculate the MAD and tracking signal for each week.arrow_forward
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