Concept explainers
When creating a time series–based forecast for the amount of soda to be sold in the cafeteria next week, which data sources can you include in your
- a. The opinion of the principal
- b. Old demand data
- c. Data about upcoming sports events
- d. The age of the cafeteria worker
To determine: The data source to be included in time series-based forecast for the quantity of soda to be sold in cafeteria for next week.
Answer to Problem 1CQ
b. Old demand data.
Explanation of Solution
Data to be included in time series-based forecasting:
Option B which is old demand data is correct. Time series based forecasting method utilizes the data from the past to forecast the future demand. So, the past demand data must be included in time series forecasting methods.
Want to see more full solutions like this?
Chapter 15 Solutions
Operations Management
Additional Business Textbook Solutions
Business in Action
Operations Management: Sustainability and Supply Chain Management (12th Edition)
Principles of Operations Management: Sustainability and Supply Chain Management (10th Edition)
Operations Management
Operations Management: Processes and Supply Chains (12th Edition) (What's New in Operations Management)
Loose-leaf for Operations Management (The Mcgraw-hill Series in Operations and Decision Sciences)
- Under what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?arrow_forwardThe Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?arrow_forwardThe file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars) through credit unions. a. Use these data to forecast consumer revolving credit through credit unions for the next 12 months. Do it in two ways. First, fit an exponential trend to the series. Second, use Holts method with optimized smoothing constants. b. Which of these two methods appears to provide the best forecasts? Answer by comparing their MAPE values.arrow_forward
- The file P13_22.xlsx contains total monthly U.S. retail sales data. While holding out the final six months of observations for validation purposes, use the method of moving averages with a carefully chosen span to forecast U.S. retail sales in the next year. Comment on the performance of your model. What makes this time series more challenging to forecast?arrow_forwardForecasting time horizons include:a) long range. b) medium range.c) short range. d) all of the choices.arrow_forwardThe purpose of this assignment is to give you an opportunity to create a forecast based on data and interpret the results. You will also gain more practice with Minitab. Forecasting future commodity prices can be important for many production operations. One such commodity is the price of aluminum ($US per metric ton). For this assignment, you are asked to use Minitab to create two forecasts based upon the data provided below. First, create a one period forecast based upon a three month moving average. Second, create a one period forecast based upon exponential smoothing (using a smoothing weight of 0.95). Compare the two forecasts based upon the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) measure of accuracy. Interpret your results. The Data: Month Price Jan-18 2,209.73 Feb-18 2,181.79 Mar-18 2,069.24 Apr-18 2,254.69 May-18 2,299.67 Jun-18 2,237.62 Jul-18 2,082.24 Aug-18 2,051.51 Sep-18 2,026.46 Oct-18 2,029.86 Nov-18 1,938.51 Dec-18 1,920.38 Jan-19 1,853.72 Feb-19…arrow_forward
- Accuracy of forecasts. The manager of a large manufacturer of industrial pumps must choose betweentwo alternative forecasting techniques. Both techniques have been used to prepare forecasts for a sixmonth period. Using MAD as a criterion, which technique has the better performance record?FORECASTMonth Demand Technique 1 Technique 21 492 488 4952 470 484 4823 485 480 4784 493 490 4885 498 497 4926 492 493 493arrow_forwardWhich of the following is not true of qualitative forecasting methods? a. They generally work best when combined with a quantitative approach b. They are more objective than quantitative methods c. They are largely non-mathematical d. They are not restricted to only the quantifiable data e. They come with the danger of biasing the forecast due to subjectivity Explain both true and false options brieflyarrow_forwardThe manager of a large manufacturer of industrial pumps must choose between two alternative forecasting techniques. Both techniques have been used to prepare forecasts for a six month period. Using MAD as a criterion, which technique has the better performance record? Month Demand Technique1 Technique 2 1 492 488 495 2 470 484 482 3 485 480 478 4 493 490 488 5 498 497 492 6 492 493 493arrow_forward
- Canton Supplies, Inc., is a service firm that employs approximately 100 people. Because of the necessity of meeting monthly cash obligations, the chief financial officer wants to develop a forecast of monthly cash requirements. Because of a recent change in equipment and operating policy, only the past seven months of data are considered relevant. The change in operations has had a great impact on cash flow. What forecasting model do you recommend? Use the Moving Average and Exponential Smoothing Excel templates or other Excel tools to help you answer this question. Cash Required Cash Required Month ($1,000) Month ($1,000) 1 186 5 233 2 219 6 241 3 216 7 204 4 270 Find the best number of months to use in a moving average forecast based on MSE. Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to two decimal places. Number of months MSE 2 3 4 The model is the best. Find the best single exponential smoothing model by…arrow_forwardThe manager of a large cement production factory in Road Town, Tortola has to choose between two alternative forecasting techniques. His production staff used both techniques in order to prepare forecasts for a six-month period (See table below). Using MAD as a criterion, which technique has the better performance record? FORECAST MONTH DEMAND TECHNIQUE 1 TECHNIQUE 2 1 492 488 495 2 470 484 482 3 485 480 478 4 493 490 488 5 498 497 492 6 492 493 493arrow_forwardAt the ABC Floral Shop, an argument developed between two of the owners, Bob and Henry, over the accuracy of forecasting methods. Bob argued that exponential smoothing with α = .1 would be the best method. Henry argued that the shop would get a better forecast with α = .3.a. Using F1 = 100 and the data from problem 3, which of the two managers is right?b. Graph the two forecasts and the original data using Excel. What does the graph reveal?c. Maybe forecast accuracy could be improved. Try additional values of α = .2, .4, and .5 to see if better accuracy is achieved.arrow_forward
- Practical Management ScienceOperations ManagementISBN:9781337406659Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.Publisher:Cengage,Contemporary MarketingMarketingISBN:9780357033777Author:Louis E. Boone, David L. KurtzPublisher:Cengage LearningMarketingMarketingISBN:9780357033791Author:Pride, William MPublisher:South Western Educational Publishing