Chapter 15, Problem 17E

Negatives After the political ad campaign described in Exercise 15, part a, pollsters check the governor’s negatives. They test the hypothesis that the ads produced no change against the alternative that the negatives are now below 30% and find a P-value of 0.22. Which conclusion is appropriate? Explain.

1. a) There’s a 22% chance that the ads worked.
2. b) There’s a 78% chance that the ads worked.
3. c) There’s a 22% chance that their poll is correct.
4. d) There’s a 22% chance that natural sampling variation could produce poll results like these if there’s really no change in public opinion.