Concept explainers
a)
To explain: The sensitivity analysis.
Introduction:
Sensitivity Analysis:
The process to evaluate the effect of change in one variable on the end result of a project is called sensitivity analysis. It reflects the change in
Scenario Analysis:
The process to evaluate different probable events and their outcomes that is end result of a project is called scenario analysis. It reflects the level of end result with multiple estimates called scenario categorized as base, best, and worst case scenario.
Simulation Analysis:
Simulation analysis is an extended version of sensitivity analysis that has improved the evaluation process as it considers detailed inputs. It can record the effect of changes in multiple input variables at once.
b.
To explain: The scenario analysis
Introduction:
Scenario analysis is the process to reflect the outcome in different probable scenarios. It changes the estimates based on the depended factors.
c.
To explain: The simulation analysis and the project on which the simulation will be applied.
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Chapter 12 Solutions
Fundamentals Of Financial Management, Concise Edition (mindtap Course List)
- Your boss wants you to conduct a sensitivity and scenario analysis to determine whether the following project is a winner. You are entering an established market, and you know the market size will be 1,100,000 units. You are unsure of your exact market share, the price you will be able to charge, and your variable cost per unit, but have determined a range of possible values for each (in the table below). Your initial investment cost is $150 million, and that investment will depreciate in straight-line form over the 20-year life of the project. There are no new NWC requirements, and there will be no salvage value at the end of the 20 years. The tax rate is 35%. The discount rate is 18%. a) Use the following table to conduct a full sensitivity analysis for the project. Make sure to include the NPV for the expected outcome as part of the full sensitivity analysis. Also add the best- and worst-case scenarios to the full sensitivity analysis. Show all of your work (written out, not an…arrow_forwardHuang Industries is considering a proposed project whose estimatedNPV is $12 million. This estimate assumes that economic conditions will be “average.”However, the CFO realizes that conditions could be better or worse, so she performed ascenario analysis and obtained these results: Calculate the project’s expected NPV, standard deviation, and coefficient of variation.arrow_forwardImagine that you have been tasked with evaluating the future investment of equipment for a company. To make an effective decision you will likely consider various capital budgeting techniques such as the cash payback technique, internal rate of return (IRR), annual rate of return (ARR), and the net present value (NPR) methods. Which method are you most likely to use to evaluate future investments and which are you least likely to use?arrow_forward
- Suppose that, for an engineering project, the optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic estimates are as shown in the accompanying table. Develop a spreadsheet to determine the AW for each of the three estimate conditions. It is thought that the most critical elements are useful life and net annual cash flow. Include in your spreadsheet a table showing the AW for all combinations of the estimates for these two factors, assuming that all other factors remain at their most likely values.arrow_forwardA company is considering three alternative Investment projects with different net cash flows. The present value of net cash flows is calculated using Excel and the results follow. Potential Projects Present value of net cash flows (excluding initial investment) Initial investment Complete this question by entering your answers in the tabs below. a. Compute the net present value of each project. b. If the company accepts all positive net present value projects, which of these will It accept? c. If the company can choose only one project, which will it choose on the basis of net present value? Required A Required B Compute the net present value of each project. Potential Projects Project A Present value of net cash flows Initial investment Net present value Required C Project E Project C $10,685 (10,000)arrow_forwardA financial analyst is evaluating the following projects, which are mutually exclusive, meaning that only one of them can be chosen. Based on financial theory and the NPV criterion, which one of these projects should be chosen over the other three? Time A C D -26,000 -7,200 -14,500 -19,600 8,100 11,900 8,100 2,360 8.600 1,150 10,000 2,120 5,700 800 11,100 11,00O0 4,200 850 1,130 9,800 12,480 9,700 830 11,600 Discount 13.9% 13.9% 13.9% 13.9% Rate O Project A O Project B O Project C O Project D O12 345arrow_forward
- I need solutions for questions d, e, f, g, h and i. Thanks d. Are this project’s cash flows likely to be positively or negatively correlated withreturns on Cory’s other projects and with the economy, and should this matter in youranalysis? Explain.e. Unrelated to the new product, Cory is analyzing two mutually exclusive machines thatwill upgrade its manufacturing plant. These machines are considered average-riskprojects, so management will evaluate them at the firm’s 10% WACC. Machine Xhas a life of 4 years, while Machine Y has a life of 2 years. The cost of each machineis $60,000; however, Machine X provides after-tax cash flows of $25,000 per year for4 years and Machine Y provides after-tax cash flows of $42,000 per year for 2 years. Themanufacturing plant is very successful, so the machines will be repurchased at the endof each machine’s useful life. In other words, the machines are “repeatable” projects.1. Using the replacement chain method, what is the NPV of the better machine?2.…arrow_forwardThe management recognizes that the present worth of the cogeneration plant is quite sensitive to the savings in electricity costs, the MARR, and the initial costs. Since there is some uncertainty about these estimates, the company wants to explore further the impact of changes in these parameters on the viability of the project. You are to carry out a break-even analysis for each of these parameters to find out what range of values results in a viable project (i.e., PW > 0) and to determine the “break-even” parameter values that make the present worth of the project zero. How much of a drop in the cost of natural gas will result in the heat exchange units having a present worth of zero? Construct a break-even graph to illustrate this break-even costarrow_forwardDuraTech Manufacturing is evaluating a process improvement project. The estimated receipts and disbursements associated with the project are shown below. MARR is 6%/yr. Solve, a. What is the internal rate of return of this investment? b. What is the decision rule for judging the attractiveness of investments based on internal rate of return? c. Should DuraTech implement the proposed process improvement?arrow_forward
- Consider the following statement about real options: Sometimes real options can give managers the flexibility to decide to invest in a project or wait to make a more calculated decision. True or False: The preceding statement is correct. True False Which type of real option allows a project to be expanded if demand turns out to be greater than expected? Expansion option Flexibility option Abandonment option Timing option Consider the following example: King Snowplows began operations in New York City two years ago. As an independent contractor, the company does the majority of its business working for the city. The company also had offers from surrounding cities in New Jersey and Long Island, but these offers would have required the company to invest in additional snowplows—which have high up-front costs. King Snowplows decided to purchase only the snowplows necessary to handle its contract with New York City. The company…arrow_forwardImagine that you have been tasked with evaluating the future investment of equipment for a company. To make an effective decision you will likely consider various capital budgeting techniques such as the cash payback technique, internal rate of return (IRR), annual rate of return (ARR), and the net present value (NPR) methods. Discuss which method you are most likely to use to evaluate future investments and which you are least likely to use.arrow_forward. Suppose that your organization wants to decide which one of the given two projects can be selected for the development, as summarized in the following table. Calculate the Expected Monetary Value (EMV) for each project and suggest which project can be selected? Probability of occurrence of risk/opportunity (Impact) Estimated Profits/Losses Project 1 40% $140000 60% -$60000 Project 2 80% $40000 20% -$8000arrow_forward
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