OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT IN THE SUPPLY CHAIN: DECISIONS & CASES (Mcgraw-hill Series Operations and Decision Sciences)
7th Edition
ISBN: 9781259326738
Author: SCHROEDER
Publisher: MCG
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Textbook Question
Chapter 10, Problem 6P
Using the data in problem 2, prepare exponentially smoothed
- a. α = .1 and F1 = 90
- b. α = .3 and F1 = 90
a)
Expert Solution
Summary Introduction
To develop: The exponential smoothed forecast
Introduction:
Exponential smoothing:
In the exponential smoothing forecast method, older data are given lesser importance, and newer data are given more importance. It is efficient in making short-term forecasts.
Explanation of Solution
Given information:
Forecast for period 1 (F1) = 90
Smoothing constant (α) = 0.1
| Period | Dt |
| 1 | 92 |
| 2 | 127 |
| 3 | 106 |
| 4 | 165 |
| 5 | 125 |
| 6 | 111 |
| 7 | 178 |
| 8 | 97 |
Formula for exponential smoothing:
Calculation of forecast:
The forecast for period 1 is 90.
Period 2:
The forecast for period 2 is 90.2.
Period 3:
The forecast for period 3 is 93.9.
Period 4:
The forecast for period 4 is 95.1.
Period 5:
The forecast for period 5 is 102.1.
Period 6:
The forecast for period 6 is 104.4.
Period 7:
The forecast for period 7 is 105.
Period 8:
The forecast for period 8 is 112.3.
b)
Expert Solution
Summary Introduction
To develop: The exponential smoothed forecast
Introduction:
Exponential smoothing:
In the exponential smoothing forecast method, older data are given lesser importance, and newer data are given more importance. It is efficient in making short-term forecasts.
Explanation of Solution
Given information:
Forecast for period 1 (F1) = 90
Smoothing constant (α) = 0.3
| Period | Dt |
| 1 | 92 |
| 2 | 127 |
| 3 | 106 |
| 4 | 165 |
| 5 | 125 |
| 6 | 111 |
| 7 | 178 |
| 8 | 97 |
Formula for exponential smoothing:
Calculation of forecast:
The forecast for period 1 is 90.
Period 2:
The forecast for period 2 is 90.6.
Period 3:
The forecast for period 3 is 101.5.
Period 4:
The forecast for period 4 is 102.9.
Period 5:
The forecast for period 5 is 121.5.
Period 6:
The forecast for period 6 is 122.6.
Period 7:
The forecast for period 7 is 119.1.
Period 8:
The forecast for period 8 is 136.8.
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Students have asked these similar questions
Data collected on the yearly registrations for a Six Sigma seminar at the Quality College are shown in the following
table:
Year
Registrations (000)
a) Calculate the forecasted registrations for years 2 through 12 using exponential smoothing, with a smoothing
constant (a) of 0.40 and a starting forecast of 5.00 for year 1 (round your responses to one decimal place):
Year
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6 7 8 8 9 10 11
1 2 3 4 5
4.00 7.00 5.00 4.00 9.00 9.00 6.00 10.00 13.00 14.00 12.00
1
5.00
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9 10
11
12
Professor Very Busy needs to allocate time next week to include time for office hours. He needs to
forecast the number of students who will seek appointments. He has gathered the following data:
Week
6 weeks ago
5 weeks ago
4 weeks ago
3 weeks ago
2 weeks ago
Last week
# Students
83
110
95
80
65
50
What is this week's forecast using trend-adjusted (double) smoothing with alpha = .5 and beta = .1, if the
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week's forecast was -5?
49.3
78.7
51.3
50.6
65.4
The actual monthly demand of special pizza in the past 6 months were:
392, 355, 406, 427, 282, 394
If a four-month moving average forecasting model is used to generate
forecasts,
what is the value of the Mean Absolute Percent Error (in percent)?
Use at least 4 decimals.
Chapter 10 Solutions
OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT IN THE SUPPLY CHAIN: DECISIONS & CASES (Mcgraw-hill Series Operations and Decision Sciences)
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