Practical Management Science
Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN: 9781337406659
Author: WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher: Cengage,
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Question 5
Your company has developed a new energy drink and you are trying to decide whether to sell the recipe, or make and distribute it yourself.
A company will pay you $8 million for the recipe.
If your company makes the drink itself, it will cost $7 million to build a factory and distribution network.
Your analytics and marketing teams tell you there is a 10% chance the market response will be great, a 60% chance the market response will be decent
with gross earnings of $15 million, and a 30% chance the market response will be poor with gross earnings of $5 million.
If the market response is great, there is a 60% chance the drink will be the new fad and you will make gross earnings of $70 million, a 30% chance the
gross earnings will be $40 million, and a 10% chance the gross earnings will be $20 million
What is the expected value from the Perfect Information Tree Gust the perfect information tree. not EVP)
Please write your answer in units of Smillions, and round to 2 decimal places. For example if the answer is 1.250.000. you enter it as 1.25
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Transcribed Image Text:Question 5 Your company has developed a new energy drink and you are trying to decide whether to sell the recipe, or make and distribute it yourself. A company will pay you $8 million for the recipe. If your company makes the drink itself, it will cost $7 million to build a factory and distribution network. Your analytics and marketing teams tell you there is a 10% chance the market response will be great, a 60% chance the market response will be decent with gross earnings of $15 million, and a 30% chance the market response will be poor with gross earnings of $5 million. If the market response is great, there is a 60% chance the drink will be the new fad and you will make gross earnings of $70 million, a 30% chance the gross earnings will be $40 million, and a 10% chance the gross earnings will be $20 million What is the expected value from the Perfect Information Tree Gust the perfect information tree. not EVP) Please write your answer in units of Smillions, and round to 2 decimal places. For example if the answer is 1.250.000. you enter it as 1.25
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