You make an investment. Assume that annual returns are normally distributed with a mean return of .08 per year and a standard deviation of .20. What is the probability of (a) a positive annual return? (b) What is the probability of an annual return greater than .12? (c) What is the probability of a return of –.06 or less? (d) Suppose there are 250 trading days in a year and the return on any day is independent of the return on any other day. What is the probability of a positive return on any given day?
Continuous Probability Distributions
Probability distributions are of two types, which are continuous probability distributions and discrete probability distributions. A continuous probability distribution contains an infinite number of values. For example, if time is infinite: you could count from 0 to a trillion seconds, billion seconds, so on indefinitely. A discrete probability distribution consists of only a countable set of possible values.
Normal Distribution
Suppose we had to design a bathroom weighing scale, how would we decide what should be the range of the weighing machine? Would we take the highest recorded human weight in history and use that as the upper limit for our weighing scale? This may not be a great idea as the sensitivity of the scale would get reduced if the range is too large. At the same time, if we keep the upper limit too low, it may not be usable for a large percentage of the population!
You make an investment. Assume that annual returns are
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