We try to predict the unemployment (unem) with an AR(1) model and VAR(1) (unemployment and inflation). Figure 1 shows the predication results based on AR(1) and Figure 2 shows that for VAR(1). The RMSE and MAE for AR(1) are 0.48 and 0.54, while those for VAR(1) are 0.58 and 0.52. Which one of the following statements is correct: Select one: O a. VAR(1) performs better than AR(1), because it contains additional information of inflation. O b. AR(1) performs better than VAR(1) because it has smaller RMSE O c. VAR(1) performs better than AR(1) because it has smaller MAE O d. We cannot tell which one performs better

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We try to predict the unemployment (unem) with an AR(1) model and VAR(1) (unemployment and inflation). Figure 1 shows the predication results based on AR(1) and the Figure 2 shows that for VAR(1). The RMSE and
MAE for AR(1) are 0.48 and 0.54, while those for VAR(1) are 0.58 and 0.52. Which one of the following statements is correct:
10
civilian unemployment rate, %
амми
um
1950
O b.
O c.
O d.
1960
1950
num
True unemployment rate before 1996
Confidence interval
True unemployment rate after 1996
1970
1980
1948 through 2003
1960
1970
1980
1948 through 2003
True unemployment rate before 1996-
Confidence interval
True unemployment rate after 1996
1990
AR(1) performs better than VAR(1) because it has smaller RMSE
VAR(1) performs better than AR(1) because it has smaller MAE
We cannot tell which one performs better
Forecast based on AR(1)
Confidence interval
1990
2000
2000
We try to predict the unemployment (unem) with an AR(1) model and VAR(1) (unemployment and inflation). Figure 1 shows the predication results based on AR(1) and Figure 2 shows that for VAR(1). The RMSE and MAE
for AR(1) are 0.48 and 0.54, while those for VAR(1) are 0.58 and 0.52. Which one of the following statements is correct:
Select one:
O a. VAR(1) performs better than AR(1), because it contains additional information of inflation.
Forecast based on VAR(1)
Confidence interval
Transcribed Image Text:We try to predict the unemployment (unem) with an AR(1) model and VAR(1) (unemployment and inflation). Figure 1 shows the predication results based on AR(1) and the Figure 2 shows that for VAR(1). The RMSE and MAE for AR(1) are 0.48 and 0.54, while those for VAR(1) are 0.58 and 0.52. Which one of the following statements is correct: 10 civilian unemployment rate, % амми um 1950 O b. O c. O d. 1960 1950 num True unemployment rate before 1996 Confidence interval True unemployment rate after 1996 1970 1980 1948 through 2003 1960 1970 1980 1948 through 2003 True unemployment rate before 1996- Confidence interval True unemployment rate after 1996 1990 AR(1) performs better than VAR(1) because it has smaller RMSE VAR(1) performs better than AR(1) because it has smaller MAE We cannot tell which one performs better Forecast based on AR(1) Confidence interval 1990 2000 2000 We try to predict the unemployment (unem) with an AR(1) model and VAR(1) (unemployment and inflation). Figure 1 shows the predication results based on AR(1) and Figure 2 shows that for VAR(1). The RMSE and MAE for AR(1) are 0.48 and 0.54, while those for VAR(1) are 0.58 and 0.52. Which one of the following statements is correct: Select one: O a. VAR(1) performs better than AR(1), because it contains additional information of inflation. Forecast based on VAR(1) Confidence interval
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