The state-of-nature probabilities are P(S₁) = 0.35, P(S₂) = 0.35, and P(S3) = 0.30. a. Use a decision tree to recommend a decision. b. Use EVPI to determine whether XY Manufacturing Company should attempt to obtain a better estimate of demand.
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- Consider the following price and dividend data for Ford Motor Company: Dividend ($) Date December 31, 2004 January 26, 2005 April 28, 2005 July 29, 2005 October 28, 2005 December 30, 2005 Price ($) $14.04 $13.43 $9.14 OA. -44.4% OB. -40.2% OC.-42.32% OD. -38.1% $10.74 $8.02 $7.72 $0.12 $0.12 $0.12 $0.12 Assume that you purchased Ford Motor Company stock at the closing price on December 31, 2004 and sold it at the closing price on December 30, 2005. Your realized annual return is for the year 2005 is closest to:The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars): Decision State of Nature Alternative Low Demand (S1) Medium Demand (S2) High Demand )S3) Manufacture, d(1) -20 40 100 Purchase, d(2) 10 45 70 The state-of-nature probabilities are P s1= 0.35, P s2= 0.35, and P s3= 0.30 Use expected value to recommend a decision.The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent on the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars): (bold and underline is answer/ --- = needs answer) State of Nature Low Demand Medium Demand High Demand Decision Alternative s1 s2 s3 Manufacture, d1 -20 40 100 Purchase, d2 10 45 70 The state-of-nature probabilities are P(s1) = 0.40, P(s2) = 0.40, and P(s3) = 0.20. Do not round your intermediate calculations. (a) Use a decision tree to recommend a decision. Purchase Component Part (b) Use EVPI to determine whether Gorman should attempt to obtain a better estimate of demand. Enter your answer in thousands dollars. For example, an answer of $200 thousands should be entered as 200,000. Gorman should attempt to obtain a better estimate of…
- Deborah Kellogg buys Breathalyzer test sets for the Winter Park Police Department. The quality of the test sets from her two suppliers is indicated in the following table: Percent Defective Probability for Winter Park Probability for Dayton 1% 3% 5% .70 .20 .10 .30 .30 .40 Kellogg orders 10,000 tests per order. A defective Breathalyzer test set can be repaired for $0.50. When determining the costs for each branch (Decision Tree), utilize the number per order (*) the percent defective (*) the repair cost. a. What is the EMV for Winter Park? $ [Select ] b. What is the EMV for Dayton? $$127 c. What choice should Deborah Kellogg make? [Select] >Payoff Table Decision Alternatives Demand Low Medium High Small, d1 400 500 600 Medium, d2 100 600 800 Large, d3 -300 400 1200 1). If nothing is known about the demand probabilities, what are the recommended decision using the Maximax (optimistic), Maximin (pessimistic) and Equally Likely? 2). If P(low) = 0.20, P(medium) = 0.35, and P(high) = 0.45. What is the recommended decision using the expected monetary value approach? 3). What is the expected value of perfect information (EVPI)?The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent on the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars): State of Nature Low Demand Medium Demand High Demand Decision Alternative s 1 s 2 s 3 Manufacture, d 1 -20 40 100 Purchase, d 2 10 45 70 The state-of-nature probabilities are P(s1) = 0.25, P(s2) = 0.25, and P(s3) = 0.50 (a) Use a decision tree to recommend a decision. (b) Use EVPI to determine whether Gorman should attempt to obtain a better estimate of demand. Enter your answer in thousands dollars. For example, an answer of $200 thousands should be entered as 200,000. Gorman attempt to obtain a better estimate of demand, as the additional information could be worth up to $ for Gorman. (c) A test market study of the potential…
- eferring to the pay-off table, determine which alternative would be chosen under each of these strategies: Possible future demand in OMR Alternative Low Medium High A 12 15 15 B 10 13 16 C 6 8 19 For the data in above table, assume probabilities of: (low demand) = 0.15, (medium demand) = 0.55, and (high demand) = 0.3. Using a Minimax regret approach the value of the lowest regret is. (Write the number only)3. A toy manufacturer makes stuffed kittens and puppies which have relatively lifelike motions. There are three different mechanisms that can be installed in these "pets." These toys will sell for the same price regardless of the mechanism installed, but each mechanism has its own variable cost and setup cost. Profit, therefore, is dependent upon the choice of mechanism and upon the level of demand. The manufacturer has in hand a forecast of demand that suggests a 0.2 probability of light demand, a 0.45 probability of moderate demand, and a probability of 0.35 of heavy demand. Payoffs for each mechanism-demand combination appear in the table below. Wind-up action Pneumatic action Electronic action Demand Light Moderate $250,000 $90,000 -$100,000 400,000 440,000 400,000 Heavy 650,000 740,000 780,000 Construct the appropriate decision tree to analyze this problem. Use standard symbols for the tree. Analyze the tree to select the optimal decision for the manufacturer.A company wants to produce a souvenir with a marketing life of sixmonths. Uncertainty surrounds the likely sales volume as well as thefixed costs of the venture as shown below:Sales units Probability Contrn. /unit Probability Fixed cost Probability100 000 0.3 K 7 0.5 K400 000 0.2 Page 5 of 80 000 0.6 K 5 0.5 K450 000 0.560 000 0.1 K500 000 0.31.0 1.0 1.0 Determine the expected value of the contribution
- Aqua Man Company manufactures and sells a single product. Planned and actual production in its first year of operation was 100,000 units. Planned and actual costs for the year were as follows: Manufacturing Non-manufacturing Variable P600,000 P500,000 Fixed P400,000 P300,000 The company sold 85,000 units of product at a selling price of P30 per unit. Using absorption costing, the company’s operating profit was Select one: a. P1,020,000 b. P975,000 c. P900,000 d. P750,000Sun TV sells TV sets. It does not sell smart TVs so customers do not come to Sun TV if they want to purchase smart TVs. Sun TV wants to start selling smart TVs and will only sell smart TVs to customers to whom they advertise. Managers use customer information (income level, previous purchase history) to decide which customers they should target. The team needs to decide how sure it must be in predicting customer interest in a smart TV. If it is too cautious, it will choose a very high cutoff probability and only market to customers who it believes are very likely to be in the market for a smart TV. This may cause them to miss out on many customers. If they are too aggressive and choose a low cutoff probability, they may identify more individuals interested in buying smart TVs but also end up wasting marketing dollars on customers who are not interested in purchasing smart TVs. To choose a cutoff probability, the team develops the confusion matrices below for two cutoff probabilities on…The water pump company has succeeded in introducing a water pump that saves electricity, is easy to install, and is durable (guaranteed). Its high quality has given the company an early edge in the local and national markets, but the entry of highly skilled competitors may occur within the next 3 years. Assume that the income and expense relationship of the company is as follows: TR = 22000Q - 15.6Q2 MR = dTR / dQ = 22000 - 31.2Q TC = 300000 + 4640Q + 10Q2 MC = dTC / dQ = 4640 + 20Q Where TR is income (in thousands of rupiah), Q is quantity (in units), MR is marginal income (in thousands of rupiah), TC is total cost, including a risk-adjusted normal rate of return on investment (in thousands of rupiah), and MC is the marginal cost (in thousands of rupiah). a. Compute: the profit-maximizing price-output combination. b. Compute: long-run equilibrium high-price / low-output. c. Compute: long-run low-price / high-output equilibrium