The service center at a large automobile dealership is trying to boost revenue by pro- viding no-appointment-necessary oil changes to any type of vehicle that stops by the service center. To quickly estimate the number of these oil changes that the service center can be expected to complete in the upcoming week, the service manager has been using simple exponential smoothing with an alpha value of 0.1. The number of no-appointment-necessary oil changes that the service center completed over the past 4 weeks is listed here: • 4 weeks ago: 25 • 3 weeks ago: 36 2 weeks ago: 33 Last week: 28 Last week, the service manager's forecast for the number of no-appointment- necessary oil changes was 32.20. a. What would be the service manager's forecast for this next week? b. What was the error in the service manager's forecast last week? c. Suppose the service manager decided to instead use a 3-week moving average. Now what would be the service manager's forecast for this next week?

The service center at a large automobile dealership is trying to boost revenue by pro- viding no-appointment-necessary oil changes to any type of vehicle that stops by the service center. To quickly estimate the number of these oil changes that the service center can be expected to complete in the upcoming week, the service manager has been using simple exponential smoothing with an alpha value of 0.1. The number of no-appointment-necessary oil changes that the service center completed over the past 4 weeks is listed here: • 4 weeks ago: 25 • 3 weeks ago: 36 2 weeks ago: 33 Last week: 28 Last week, the service manager's forecast for the number of no-appointment- necessary oil changes was 32.20. a. What would be the service manager's forecast for this next week? b. What was the error in the service manager's forecast last week? c. Suppose the service manager decided to instead use a 3-week moving average. Now what would be the service manager's forecast for this next week?

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter12: Queueing Models

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 59P

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At the beginning of each week, a machine is in one of four conditions: 1 = excellent; 2 = good; 3 = average; 4 = bad. The weekly revenue earned by a machine in state 1, 2, 3, or 4 is 100, 90, 50, or 10, respectively. After observing the condition of the machine at the beginning of the week, the company has the option, for a cost of 200, of instantaneously replacing the machine with an excellent machine. The quality of the machine deteriorates over time, as shown in the file P10 41.xlsx. Four maintenance policies are under consideration: Policy 1: Never replace a machine. Policy 2: Immediately replace a bad machine. Policy 3: Immediately replace a bad or average machine. Policy 4: Immediately replace a bad, average, or good machine. Simulate each of these policies for 50 weeks (using at least 250 iterations each) to determine the policy that maximizes expected weekly profit. Assume that the machine at the beginning of week 1 is excellent.
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Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. As the Marketing Manager for Southeastern Corrugated, what would you do upon receiving the request for quotation from Coastal Products?
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Forecast is calculating estimates of future cycle/s based on data of past cycles -- there is no?
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