for the last week, daily high temperatures in st.louis were as follows: 93, 94, 93, 95, 96, 88 and 90. i. calculate the mean absolute deviation based on a 2-day moving average. ii. compute the mean squared error for the 2-day moving average. iii. calculate the mean absolute percent error fort he 2-day moving average.
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for the last week, daily high temperatures in st.louis were as follows: 93, 94, 93, 95, 96, 88 and 90.
i. calculate the mean absolute deviation based on a 2-day moving average.
ii. compute the mean squared error for the 2-day moving average.
iii. calculate the mean absolute percent error fort he 2-day moving average.
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- Under what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. Ethical decisions that affect a buyers ethical perspective usually involve the organizational environment, cultural environment, personal environment, and industry environment. Analyze this scenario using these four variables.Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What should Sharon do in this situation?
- Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What does the Institute of Supply Management code of ethics say about financial conflicts of interest?At the beginning of each week, a machine is in one of four conditions: 1 = excellent; 2 = good; 3 = average; 4 = bad. The weekly revenue earned by a machine in state 1, 2, 3, or 4 is 100, 90, 50, or 10, respectively. After observing the condition of the machine at the beginning of the week, the company has the option, for a cost of 200, of instantaneously replacing the machine with an excellent machine. The quality of the machine deteriorates over time, as shown in the file P10 41.xlsx. Four maintenance policies are under consideration: Policy 1: Never replace a machine. Policy 2: Immediately replace a bad machine. Policy 3: Immediately replace a bad or average machine. Policy 4: Immediately replace a bad, average, or good machine. Simulate each of these policies for 50 weeks (using at least 250 iterations each) to determine the policy that maximizes expected weekly profit. Assume that the machine at the beginning of week 1 is excellent.Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. Is Ben Gibson acting legally? Is he acting ethically? Why or why not?
- Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. As the Marketing Manager for Southeastern Corrugated, what would you do upon receiving the request for quotation from Coastal Products?Daily high temperatures in St. Louis for the last week were as follows: 93, 94, 93, 95, 96, 88, 93 (yesterday). a) The high temperature for today using a 3-day moving average = 92.3 degrees (round your response to one decimal place). b) The high temperature for today using a 2-day moving average = 90.5 degrees (round your response to one decimal place). c) The mean absolute deviation based on a 2-day moving average = degrees (round your response to one decimal place).Daily high temperatures in St. Louis for the last week were as follows: 92, 94, 95, 92, 95, 86, 95 (yesterday). degrees (round your response to one decimal a) The high temperature for today using a 3-day moving average = [ place). b) The high temperature for today using a 2-day moving average = place). degrees (round your response to one decimal c) The mean absolute deviation based on a 2-day moving average = degrees (round your response to one decimal place). d) The mean squared error for the 2-day moving average = degrees2 (round your response to one decimal place). e) The mean absolute percent error (MAPE) for the 2-day moving average=% (round your response to one decimal place). iev S
- Daily high temperatures in St. Louis for the last week were as follows: 93, 92, 95, 92, 95, 88, 93 (yesterday). a) The high temperature for today using a 3-day moving average = degrees (round your response to one decimal place). b) The high temperature for today using a 2-day moving average = degrees (round your response to one decimal place). c) The mean absolute deviation based on a 2-day moving average = degrees (round your response to one decimal place). d) The mean squared error for the 2-day moving average = degrees (round your response to one decimal place). e) The mean absolute percent error (MAPE) for the 2-day moving average = % (round your response to one decimal place). Enter your answer in each of the answer boxes.TOC/ Tunis Oil Co. started 4 months ago. TOC noticed that its production increased significantly. Production reported was: 5, 7, 20, 90 Liters respectively over the past 4 months. OTC estimated weights for past 4 months were: 0.2, 0.3, 0.1, 0.4. OTC is seeking your help to forecast its production for the following cycle.2. A major airline uses an airport in a large city as a hub for its connecting flights. Each day the airline faces a number of claims from its passengers who lost their baggage. The number of lost baggage claims in the last 14 days have been 67, 25, 57, 58, 35, 29, 77, 44, 38, 36, 23, 69, 53, and 45 a. Use moving average method with N = 3 to forecast the expected number of claims for tomorrow. b. Use exponential smoothing method with parameter α = 0.7 to forecast the number of lost baggage claims that the airline should expect in the next 2 days. c. If the criterion for accuracy is the mean squared error (MSE), which of the forecasting methods in parts (a) and (b) are preferred? d. If you become in charge of providing forecasts for the number of claims in the next 2 days using exponential smoothing method, what would be your point and 90-percent prediction interval forecasts for the number of claims in each of the next 2 days? Use MSE as your evaluation criterion.