
Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN: 9781337406659
Author: WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher: Cengage,
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Transcribed Image Text:The owner of a small business is considering three options: buying a computer,
leasing a computer, or getting along without a computer. Based on the information
obtained from the firm's accountant, the following payoff table (in terms of net.
profit) was developed:
State of Nature
State # 1
State # 2
State # 3
Alternative
(S1)
(S2)
(S3)
A1
6.
A2
АЗ
4
Based on the probability for each state of nature in previous question(the
probability for S1 to happen equals the probability of S2; the probability for S2 to
happen is three times of S3). What is the EVPI?
O 5.29
O Can't be computed with the given information
O 114
O 642
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- The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars): State of Nature Low Demand Medium Demand High Demand Decision Alternative s1 s2 s3 Manufacture, d1 -20 40 100 Purchase, d2 10 45 70 The state-of-nature probabilities are P(s1) = 0.35, P(s2) = 0.35, and P(s3) = 0.30. Use a decision tree to recommend a decision.Recommended decision: Use EVPI to determine whether Gorman should attempt to obtain a better estimate of demand. EVPI: $ fill in the blank 3 A test market study of the potential demand for the product is expected to report either a favorable (F) or unfavorable (U) condition. The relevant conditional probabilities are as follows: P(F | s1) = 0.10 P(U | s1) = 0.90 P(F | s2) = 0.40 P(U |…arrow_forward3arrow_forwardA salesperson uses three different airlines. The probabilities of switching from one airline to another in consecutive flights are shown below. If the last flight was on Delta, what is the probability that the next was on American? American Delta Southwest American 0.5 0.25 0.25 Delta 0.2 0.6 0.2 Southwest 0.3 0.3 0.4 A 0.5 B 0.2 C 0.25 D 0.6arrow_forward
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