The operations manager has compiled data on demand for the two most popular books from order records for the previous 14 months, as shown in the table below. Study the forecast figures for ‘JHS Science Textbook’ from the table and determine if a demand pattern is obvious, and hence prepare a monthly forecast for the next four months for this  product.  Briefly  explain  why  you  chose  the  particular  method  used  for  this forecast.     Month JHS Science Textbook (cartons) SHS Math Textbook (cartons) 1 50 40 2 54 38 3 57 41 4 60 46 5 64 42 6 67 41 7 90* 41 8 76 47 9 79 42 10 82 43 11 85 42 12 87 49 13 92 43 14 96 44 *Unusual order due to flooding of a major distributor’s warehouse.

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National Standard, Inc. sells radio frequency identification (RFID) tags. Monthly demand for a seven-month period is reported below:     Sales (1000 units) Forecast Observation Month Yt Ft 1 February 19   2 March 18   3 April 15   4 May 20   5 June 18   6 July 22   7 August 20   8 September    ? Use Excel to plot the data and forecast September sales using the following methods: The naïve forecast A three-month moving average Exponential smoothing with a smoothing coefficient of α = 0.2, assuming a February forecast of 19 A 3-month weighted moving average, with weights 0.60, 0.3, and 0.1. With 0.6 applied to the most recent past.

Practice example. Please shoow solution.