Sophisticated forecasting models are not always better than simple o There is no single forecasting technique that should be used for all p Neither (a) nor (b) are a key principle of focus forecasting Both (a) and (b) are key principles of focus forecasting
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- The file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars) through credit unions. a. Use these data to forecast consumer revolving credit through credit unions for the next 12 months. Do it in two ways. First, fit an exponential trend to the series. Second, use Holts method with optimized smoothing constants. b. Which of these two methods appears to provide the best forecasts? Answer by comparing their MAPE values.The owner of a restaurant in Bloomington, Indiana, has recorded sales data for the past 19 years. He has also recorded data on potentially relevant variables. The data are listed in the file P13_17.xlsx. a. Estimate a simple regression equation involving annual sales (the dependent variable) and the size of the population residing within 10 miles of the restaurant (the explanatory variable). Interpret R-square for this regression. b. Add another explanatory variableannual advertising expendituresto the regression equation in part a. Estimate and interpret this expanded equation. How does the R-square value for this multiple regression equation compare to that of the simple regression equation estimated in part a? Explain any difference between the two R-square values. How can you use the adjusted R-squares for a comparison of the two equations? c. Add one more explanatory variable to the multiple regression equation estimated in part b. In particular, estimate and interpret the coefficients of a multiple regression equation that includes the previous years advertising expenditure. How does the inclusion of this third explanatory variable affect the R-square, compared to the corresponding values for the equation of part b? Explain any changes in this value. What does the adjusted R-square for the new equation tell you?The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?
- 16- Statistical forecasting models have the following weaknesses, except __________. a. Can be costly and time consuming to model “soft” information b. Can process large amounts of data c. Slow to react to changing environments d. Only as good as the model formulation and the data it is based uponQ5) Monthly sales for a six month period are as follows: Month SalesJan 18,000Feb 22,000Mar 16,000Apr 18,000May 20,000June 24,000 Compute the sales forecast for July using the following approaches: (1) Four-month moving average; (2) Weighted three-month moving average using .50 for June, .30 for May and .20 for April;(3) Exponential smoothing with α (smoothing constant) equal to .40, assuming a February forecast of 18,000Explain 4 methods of judgmental technique in forecasting with an examples
- A) What is forecasting? B) describe types of forecasting C) Decribe the relationship of forecasting types with product life cycle (PLC)Q1) Forecasting is both art and science. Describe the situations where we use Qualitative forecasting techniques and quantitative forecasting techniquesTrail Questions National Scan, Inc., sells radio frequency inventory tags. Monthly sales for a seven-month period were as follows: Month Sales ('000 units) Feb. 19 Mar. 18 Apr 15 May 20 Jun. 18 Jul. 22 Aug. 20 Forecast September sales volume using each of the following: (1) A linear trend equation. (2) A five-month moving average (3) Exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant equal to .20, assuming a March forecast of 19('000) (4) A weighted average using 0.60 for the most recent month, 0.30 for the next most recent, and 0.10 for the next.
- It is part of Qualitative methods of forecasting that are useful in situations where past data do not exist, causal relationships have not been identified, or some major change has occurred in the forecasting context which is not accounted for by other techniques for instance the Corona Virus pandemic, Sales of Huawei products are banned in the US, Gulf War, trade agreement, etc.). (2 points) O a. Delphi method O b. Market survey O c. Sales force composite o d. Executive opinionI DON'T SEE THIS ONE: D.) Calculate the regression line. Compute the MAD and MSE for the regression line. E.) Use your results for A.)-D.) to determine which forecast is best. Explain your results.Distinguish between the following types of forecasts:c. Causal versus naive