Question 4 A Lie detector machine can correctly detect 96% of the time if a person tells a lie and correctly detect 95% of the time if a person tells a truth. In a jury board, the probability of a person telling a lie is 2%. Now, the lie detector machine declares that a person has told a lie. a) What is more likely, the person is a liar or not? Apply proper theorem and show full calculation. b) What is the probability of the person not being a liar? Apply proper theorem and show full calculation

Operations Research : Applications and Algorithms
4th Edition
ISBN:9780534380588
Author:Wayne L. Winston
Publisher:Wayne L. Winston
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Question 4
A Lie detector machine can correctly detect 96% of the time if a person tells a lie and correctly detect
95% of the time if a person tells a truth. In a jury board, the probability of a person telling a lie is 2%.
Now, the lie detector machine declares that a person has told a lie.
a) What is more likely, the person is a liar or not? Apply proper theorem and show full calculation.
b) What is the probability of the person not being a liar? Apply proper theorem and show full
calculation
Transcribed Image Text:Question 4 A Lie detector machine can correctly detect 96% of the time if a person tells a lie and correctly detect 95% of the time if a person tells a truth. In a jury board, the probability of a person telling a lie is 2%. Now, the lie detector machine declares that a person has told a lie. a) What is more likely, the person is a liar or not? Apply proper theorem and show full calculation. b) What is the probability of the person not being a liar? Apply proper theorem and show full calculation
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