Question 3. Given the probabilities for each of the options happening, complete the Expected Monetary Values (EMV) under Risk table below Do not use commas in your answers, they will be added for you. Alternative Renew Relocate Alternative Renew Relocate Question 3-b Probability Options Motel Approved Motel Rejected .65 .35 $500,000 $5,000,000 Which option do we select? EMV $4,000,000 $100,000 Motel Approved Motel Rejected Sum
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- You are planning to rent a car for a one-week vacation. You have the option of buying an insurance that costs $80 dollars for a week. If you do not purchase insurance, you would be personally liable for any damages. You anticipate that a minor collision will cost $2,000, whereas a major accident might cost $16,000 in repairs. Develop a payoff table for this situation. What decision should you make using each strategy? Aggressive (Optimistic) Conservative (Pessimistic) Opportunity Loss You have recently read in a magazine that that the probability of a major accident is 0.05% and that the probability of a minor collision is 0.18%. Construct a decision tree and identify the best expected value decision.Scenario Your corporation has just approved an 8-year expansion plan to grow its market share. The plan requires an influx of cash in each of the 8 years. Management wants to develop a financial plan to ensure the cash needed for the expansion will be available at the beginning of each of the 8 years. The corporation has the following investment options: Security Price per unit Return Rate (%) Years to Maturity 1 $1,200 10.255 5 2 $1,000 6.7550 6 3 $1,175 12.110 7 Savings Account 5.500 Each unit of security 1, 2, and 3 guarantees to pay $1,000 at maturity. Investments in these securities must take place only at the beginning of year 1 and will be held until maturity. Any funds not invested in securities will be invested in a savings account that pays the annual interest rates noted above. The following table summarizes the cash needs for the expansion plan for each of the 8 years: Year 1 = $250,000 Year 5 = $295,000…A market research firm has agreed, for a fee, to analyse the demand for the start-up's product and issue a report predicting whether the new start-up will be a success or a failure before the venture capitalist can make his investment decision. a) Assuming the VC is risk-neutral, what is the maximum amount it should pay for the market research? Assume that the market research's prediction is correct. b) What are the risk profiles associated with the venture capitalist's investment decision when he uses the market research with perfect predictions? How are these risk profiles compared to the risk profiles when the venture capitalist does not use the market research? Why?
- A. A company wants to produce a souvenir with a marketing life of six months. Uncertainty surrounds the likely sales volume as well as the fixed costs of the venture as shown below: Sales units Probability Contrn. /unit Probability Fixed cost K7 K5 100 000 0.3 80 000 0.6 60 000 0.1 1.0 0.5 0.5 1.0 Determine the expected value of the contribution K400 000 K450 000 K500 000 Probability 0.2 0.5 0.3 1.0Suppose a risk-neutral power plant needs 10,000 tons of coal for itsoperations next month. It is uncertain about the future price of coal. Theprice of coal today is $60 a ton but next month it could be either $40 or$68 (with equal probability). How much would the power plant be willingto pay today for an option to buy a ton of coal next month at today’sprice? (Ignore discounting over the short period of a month.)You are considering three investment alternatives for some spare cash: Old Reliable Corporation stock (A1), Fly-By-Nite Air Cargo Company stock (A2), and a federally insured savings certificate (A3). You expect the economy will either "boom" (N1) or “bust” (N2), and you estimate that a boom is more likely (p1 = 0.6) than a bust (p2 = 0.4). Outcomes for the three alternatives are expected to be (1) $2000 in boom or $500 in bust for ORC; (2) $6000 in boom but $-5000 (loss) in bust for FBN: and (3) $1200 for the certificate in either case. Set up a payoff table (decision matrix) for this problem and show which of it Alternative maximizes expected value.
- What is conditional value at risk, CVaR?It is the beginning of September and you have been offered the following deal to go heli-skiing. If you pick the first week in January and pay for your vacation now, you can get a week of heli-skiing for $1500. However, if you cannot ski because the helicopters cannot fly due to bad weather, there is no snow, or you get sick, you do not get a refund. There is a 25% probability that you will not be able to ski. If you wait until the last minute and go only if you know that the conditions are perfect and you are well, the vacation will cost $4000. You estimate that the pleasure you get from heli-skiing is worth $6300 per week to you (if you had to pay any more than that, you would choose not to go). If your cost of capital is 12% per year, should you book ahead or wait and why? (A decision tree is needed in the answer)If you are the Risk Manager of Barings Futures Singapore (BFS), outline six (6) potential risk mitigations that you can implement in order to curb or mitigate the situation.
- How does efficient frontier analysis (EFA) differ from other forms of complex risk assessment techniques? What limitations might an analyst encounter through the use of EFA? How can efficient frontier analysis results be communicated and utilized with non-mathematical decision makers?You are a risk manager of a school bus company in Hong Kong, your boss owns over 1,000 school buses. During COVID 19, almost all the school buses parked in no covered car park every day because students no need to be back to school. Your boss is considering a partial retention program for physical losses to the school buses. a) Identify the factors that your company should consider before it adopts a retention program for physical damage losses to school buses. b) If a retention program is adopted, what are the various methods you can use to pay for physical damage losses to school buses? c) Identify two risk-control measures that could be used in your company’s retention program for physical damage lossesA well-known plastic mould and die manufacturer in Toronto intends to expand internationally in anticipation of strong demand and expansion in the plastic die manufacturing sector. use the table beneath. Using the Maximax, Maximin, and equally likely conditions, assist the business in making the best option in an unclear situation. 0.5 for a highly favourable condition, 0.2 for an average demand, and 0.3 for an unfavourable state are the probabilities linked with the states of nature.a) Choose the course of action that will give Andrew the highest predicted monetary value (EMV).b) Determine the anticipated value of perfect information (EVPI).