Practical Management Science
Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN: 9781337406659
Author: WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher: Cengage,
Bartleby Related Questions Icon

Related questions

Question

Please help with the following.

That is P (N/D)=0.7; P (O/G)=0.3, P(C/B) =0.5
After you have computed the revised probabilities round to two decimal places
a) Construct the appropriate decision tree to help the oil company make the appropriate
decisions. This tree must be constructed in logical order with labels and net payoffs. It
also includes the revised probabilities.
b) Fold back the decision tree to determine the best strategy for the company; you must state
this strategy. What is the final expected profit?
c) What is the expected value of sample information (EVSI)- the most that should be paid to
seismic testing firm for the test?
d) Calculate the expected value of perfect information (EVPI)- the most that should be paid
to an expert for perfect prediction of the uncertain outcomes.
e) What is the efficiency of sample information?
expand button
Transcribed Image Text:That is P (N/D)=0.7; P (O/G)=0.3, P(C/B) =0.5 After you have computed the revised probabilities round to two decimal places a) Construct the appropriate decision tree to help the oil company make the appropriate decisions. This tree must be constructed in logical order with labels and net payoffs. It also includes the revised probabilities. b) Fold back the decision tree to determine the best strategy for the company; you must state this strategy. What is the final expected profit? c) What is the expected value of sample information (EVSI)- the most that should be paid to seismic testing firm for the test? d) Calculate the expected value of perfect information (EVPI)- the most that should be paid to an expert for perfect prediction of the uncertain outcomes. e) What is the efficiency of sample information?
Question 2
An oil company must decide whether or not to drill an oil well in a particular area that they already
own. The decision maker (DM) believes that the area could be dry, reasonably good or a bonanza.
See data in the table which shows the gross revenues for the oil well that is found.
Decision
Drill
$0
Abandon
$0
Probability 0.3
Dry (D)
Seismic Results
No structure(N)
Open(0)
Closed (C)
Reasonably
good(G)
$85
$0
0.3
Drilling costs 40M. The company can take a series of seismic soundings at a cost of 12M) to
determine the underlying geological structure. The results will be either "no structure", "open
structure or "closed structure". The reliability of the testing company is as follows that is, this
reflects their historical performance.
Bonanza(B)
Note that if the test result is "no structure" the company can sell the land to a developer for 50 m.
otherwise (for the other results) it can abandon the drilling idea at no benefit to itself.
$200 m
$0
0.4
Dry(d)
0.7
0.2
0.1
Conditional Probability for a given state of nature
Reasonably good(g)
0.3
0.3
0.4
Bonanza(b)
0.1
0.4
0.5
expand button
Transcribed Image Text:Question 2 An oil company must decide whether or not to drill an oil well in a particular area that they already own. The decision maker (DM) believes that the area could be dry, reasonably good or a bonanza. See data in the table which shows the gross revenues for the oil well that is found. Decision Drill $0 Abandon $0 Probability 0.3 Dry (D) Seismic Results No structure(N) Open(0) Closed (C) Reasonably good(G) $85 $0 0.3 Drilling costs 40M. The company can take a series of seismic soundings at a cost of 12M) to determine the underlying geological structure. The results will be either "no structure", "open structure or "closed structure". The reliability of the testing company is as follows that is, this reflects their historical performance. Bonanza(B) Note that if the test result is "no structure" the company can sell the land to a developer for 50 m. otherwise (for the other results) it can abandon the drilling idea at no benefit to itself. $200 m $0 0.4 Dry(d) 0.7 0.2 0.1 Conditional Probability for a given state of nature Reasonably good(g) 0.3 0.3 0.4 Bonanza(b) 0.1 0.4 0.5
Expert Solution
Check Mark
Knowledge Booster
Background pattern image
Similar questions
Recommended textbooks for you
Text book image
Practical Management Science
Operations Management
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:Cengage,
Text book image
Operations Management
Operations Management
ISBN:9781259667473
Author:William J Stevenson
Publisher:McGraw-Hill Education
Text book image
Operations and Supply Chain Management (Mcgraw-hi...
Operations Management
ISBN:9781259666100
Author:F. Robert Jacobs, Richard B Chase
Publisher:McGraw-Hill Education
Text book image
Business in Action
Operations Management
ISBN:9780135198100
Author:BOVEE
Publisher:PEARSON CO
Text book image
Purchasing and Supply Chain Management
Operations Management
ISBN:9781285869681
Author:Robert M. Monczka, Robert B. Handfield, Larry C. Giunipero, James L. Patterson
Publisher:Cengage Learning
Text book image
Production and Operations Analysis, Seventh Editi...
Operations Management
ISBN:9781478623069
Author:Steven Nahmias, Tava Lennon Olsen
Publisher:Waveland Press, Inc.