Liam is estimating the schedule for all activities in the GHI Project. He is working with his project team and comparing the results of a past similar project to forecast the schedule for his current project. This is an example of which estimating approach? Group of answer choices Analogous Organizational process assets Parametric PERT

Liam is estimating the schedule for all activities in the GHI Project. He is working with his project team and comparing the results of a past similar project to forecast the schedule for his current project. This is an example of which estimating approach? Group of answer choices Analogous Organizational process assets Parametric PERT

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter9: Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Section9.2: Elements Of Decision Analysis

Problem 2P

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The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?
Managing forecasting projects involves many of the same management skills as managing other projects. Are there certain characteristics that are more significant than others?
Sales for the past 12 months at computer success are given here: January 3,000 July 6,300 february 3,400 August 7,200 March 3,700 Sept 6,400 April 4,100 Oct 4,600 May 4,700 Nov 4,200 June 5,700 December 3,900 a. Use a 3-month moving average to forecast the sales for the months May through December b. Use a 4-month moving average to forecast the sales for the months May through December C. Compare the performance of the two methods by using the mean absolute deviation as the performance criterion. Which method would you recommend? d. Compare the performance of the two methods by using the mean absolute percent error as the performance criterion. Which method would you recommend? e. Compare the performance of the two methods by using the mean squared error as the performance criterion. Which method would you recommend?
Omar has heard from some of his customers that they will probably cut back on order sizes in the next quarter. The company he works for has been reducing its salesforce due to falling demand, and he worries that he could be next if his sales begin to fall off. Believing that he may be able to convince his customers not to cut back on orders, he turns in an optimistic forecast of his next quarter sales to his manager. What are the pros and cons of doing that?
. Two servers in a restaurant predict how many guests will come for dinner in the nextfour days. The first server predicts the number of guests to be 23 for day 1, 35 for day 2,30 for day 3, and 28 for day 4. The second server predicts 26, 27, 28, and 29 for the fourrespective days. The actual attendance turns out to be 30, 22, 31, and 25. Who has thebigger forecast bias? What are the MSE and the MAE for the two servers?
Tom Glass forecasts electrical demand for the FlatlandsPublic Power District (FPPD). The FPPD wants to take itsComstock power plant out of service for maintenance whendemand is expected to be low. After shutdown, performingmaintenance and getting the plant back on line takes two weeks. The utility has enough other generating capacity tosatisfy 1,550 megawatts (MW) of demand while Comstockis out of service. Table 8.5 shows weekly peak demands(in MW) for the past several autumns. When next in year 6should the Comstock plant be scheduled for maintenance?
What should be our forecast accuracy target if there is a high degree of volatility in customer orders and long lead times? We have a new chief sales officer who is proposing that we should forecast in dollars, not in units/cases. I have never heard of anyone forecasting in dollars. It is true that dollarized forecasts can help Sales in knowing precisely what sales target they should be hitting. But, is it the best practice?
It has been said that forecasting using exponential smoothing is like driving a car by looking in therear-view mirror. What are the conditions that would have to exist for driving a car that are analogous to the assumptions made when using exponential smoothing?2. What capability would an organization have to have to not need forecasts?3. When a new business is started, or a patent idea needs funding, venture capitalists or investmentbankers will want to see a business plan that includes forecast information related to a profit andloss statement. What type of forecasting information do you suppose would be required?4. Discuss how you would manage a poor forecast.5. Omar has heard from some of his customers that they will probably cut back on order sizes in thenext quarter. The company he works for has been reducing its sales force due to falling demand andhe worries that he could be next if his sales begin to fall off. Believing that he may be able to convince his customers not to cut…
Tom Glass forecasts electrical demand for the FlatlandsPublic Power District (FPPD). The FPPD wants to take itsComstock power plant out of service for maintenance whendemand is expected to be low. After shutdown, performingmaintenance and getting the plant back on line takes twoweeks. The utility has enough other generating capacity tosatisfy 1,550 megawatts (MW) of demand while Comstockis out of service. Table 8.5 shows weekly peak demands(in MW) for the past several autumns. When next in year 6should the Comstock plant be scheduled for maintenance?
a) The demand forecast for Month 6 would be: A. 565 haircuts B. 574 haircuts C. 578 haircuts D. 584 haircuts b) With Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) as the criterion, the best forecasting model for this time series data is: A. Naïve approach B. 2-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) C. Weighted Moving Average (WMA) with weights: 0.5, 0.3, 0.2 D. Exponential Smoothing (ES) with alpha = 0.8
Below is a table that shows the Freshmen Enrollment of the New Texas Elementary School during the 1a Semesters of the past ten (10) Academic Years (AY), AY 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-02017 2017-2018 Freshmen Enrollees AY 200 220 235 270 315 4. For the Weighted Moving Averages model, use: a weight of 0.40 for the most recent data; a weight of 0.35 for the second most recent data; and a weight of 0.25 for the third most recent data. You are the Principal of New Texas Elementary School. You are interested to know the forecast of freshmen enrolment for the next academic year (AY2023-2024), in order to plan ahead the necessary resources: faculty, classroom, library holdings, physical facilities, student services, furniture and fixtures, etc.). These are the requirements: AT 2013-2014 1. Calculate the forecast using 5 forecasting techniques/methodologies/models namely: Naïve Model, Unweighted and Weighted Moving Averages, Exponential Smoothing, and Time-Series Regression. Follow and…
Tom Glass forecasts electrical demand for the Flatlands Public Power District (FPPD). The FPPD wants to take its Comstock power plant out of service for maintenance when demand is expected to be low. After shutdown, performing maintenance and getting the plant back on line takes twoweeks. The utility has enough other generating capacity to satisfy 1,550 megawatts (MW) of demand while Comstock is out of service. Table 8.5 shows weekly peak demands (in MW) for the past several autumns. When next in year 6 should the Comstock plant be scheduled for maintenance?