Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN: 9781337406659
Author: WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher: Cengage,
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Kroft Food Products is attempting to decide whether it should introduce a new line of salad
dressings called Special Choices. The company can test market the salad dressings in selected
geographic areas or bypass the test market and introduce the product nationally. The cost of the
test market is $150,000. If the company conducts the test market, it must wait to see the results
before deciding whether to introduce the salad dressings nationally. The probability of a positive
test market result is estimated to be 0.6. Alternatively, the company can decide not to conduct the test market and go ahead and make the decision to introduce the dressings or not. If the salad
dressings are introduced nationally and are a success, the company estimates that it will realize
an annual profit of $1.6 million, whereas if the dressings fail, it will incur a loss of $700,000.
The company believes the probability of success for the salad dressings is 0.50 if they are introduced
without the test market. If the company does conduct the test market and it is positive,
then the probability of successfully introducing the salad dressings increases to 0.8. If the test
market is negative and the company introduces the salad dressings anyway, the probability of
success drops to 0.30.
Using decision tree analysis, determine whether the company should conduct the test market.
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