It is generally accepted that the failure rate for engineered dams is approximately 0.0001 failures per dam-year. This number is based on overall data that ignore the contributions of specific events like storms or the differences between different types of dams and their design, construction, and operational history. In the case of commercial nuclear power plants, the core meltdown is an event comparable to dam failure. There have been 5 core meltdowns in full-scale, commercial nuclear power plants (Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, and three units at Fukushima), and there have been about 18,000 reactor-years of operating commercial nuclear power plants since the early 1960s. a) What is the estimated rate of failure for commercial nuclear power plants in failures per reactor-year? b) The design philosophy for systems and components in nuclear power plants is that the designer should demonstrate that the probability of failure that would release radioactivity is less than 1 x 10-7 per year. How do you reconcile this philosophy with the result you found in part (a)? c) A nuclear power plant operates downstream of a large hydroelectric dam whose failure would impact the safety of the nuclear plant. Both facilities have been in operation for years with no significant incidents or difficulty. It is brought to the attention of the management and regulators of the nuclear power plant that the dam may have an annual failure probability of 104, which may conflict with the safety criterion of 107 for the nuclear plant. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission asks you for advice on how to resolve this issue. What do you recommend?

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Author:J. Duncan Glover, Thomas Overbye, Mulukutla S. Sarma
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It is generally accepted that the failure rate for engineered dams is approximately 0.0001 failures
per dam-year. This number is based on overall data that ignore the contributions of specific
events like storms or the differences between different types of dams and their design,
construction, and operational history. In the case of commercial nuclear power plants, the core
meltdown is an event comparable to dam failure. There have been 5 core meltdowns in full-scale,
commercial nuclear power plants (Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, and three units at Fukushima),
and there have been about 18,000 reactor-years of operating commercial nuclear power plants
since the early 1960s.
a) What is the estimated rate of failure for commercial nuclear power plants in failures per
reactor-year?
b) The design philosophy for systems and components in nuclear power plants is that the
designer should demonstrate that the probability of failure that would release
radioactivity is less than 1 x 107 per year. How do you reconcile this philosophy with the
result you found in part (a)?
c) A nuclear power plant operates downstream of a large hydroelectric dam whose failure
would impact the safety of the nuclear plant. Both facilities have been in operation for
years with no significant incidents or difficulty. It is brought to the attention of the
management and regulators of the nuclear power plant that the dam may have an annual
failure probability of 104, which may conflict with the safety criterion of 107 for the
nuclear plant. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission asks you for advice on how to resolve
this issue. What do you recommend?
Transcribed Image Text:It is generally accepted that the failure rate for engineered dams is approximately 0.0001 failures per dam-year. This number is based on overall data that ignore the contributions of specific events like storms or the differences between different types of dams and their design, construction, and operational history. In the case of commercial nuclear power plants, the core meltdown is an event comparable to dam failure. There have been 5 core meltdowns in full-scale, commercial nuclear power plants (Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, and three units at Fukushima), and there have been about 18,000 reactor-years of operating commercial nuclear power plants since the early 1960s. a) What is the estimated rate of failure for commercial nuclear power plants in failures per reactor-year? b) The design philosophy for systems and components in nuclear power plants is that the designer should demonstrate that the probability of failure that would release radioactivity is less than 1 x 107 per year. How do you reconcile this philosophy with the result you found in part (a)? c) A nuclear power plant operates downstream of a large hydroelectric dam whose failure would impact the safety of the nuclear plant. Both facilities have been in operation for years with no significant incidents or difficulty. It is brought to the attention of the management and regulators of the nuclear power plant that the dam may have an annual failure probability of 104, which may conflict with the safety criterion of 107 for the nuclear plant. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission asks you for advice on how to resolve this issue. What do you recommend?
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