If the consulting firm could supply an accurate report, determine how much PlacePlus should be willing to pay the consulting firm and how efficient the information will be.
Place-Plus, a real estate development firm, is considering several alternative development projects. These include building and leasing an office park, purchasing a parcel of land, and building an office building to rent, buying and leasing a warehouse, building a strip mall, and building and selling condominiums. The financial success of these projects depends on interest rate movement in the next 5 years. The various development projects and their 5-year financial return (in €1,000,000s) given that interest rates will decline, remain stable, or increase, are shown in the following image of the payoff table:
a)
Place-Plus is dissatisfied with the economist’s estimate of the probabilities of future interest rate movement, so it is considering having a financial consulting firm provide a report on future interest rates. The consulting firm can cite a track record which shows that 80% of the time when interest rates declined, it had predicted they would, whereas 10% of the time when interest rates declined, the firm had predicted they would remain stable and 10% of the time it had predicted they would increase. The firm has been correct 70% of the time when rates have remained stable, whereas 10% of the time it has incorrectly predicted that rates would decrease, and 20% of the time it has incorrectly predicted that rates would increase. The firm has correctly predicted that interest rates would increase 90% of the time and incorrectly predicted rates would decrease 2% and remain stable 8% of the time. If the consulting firm could supply an accurate report, determine how much PlacePlus should be willing to pay the consulting firm and how efficient the information will be.
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