Q: Both time series and causal forecasting assume that the past relationship between demand and the…
A: Time series forecasting refers to the prediction of future events of a business. According to the…
Q: Which of the following statements about forecasts is true? O A. Forecasts are no substitute for…
A: Forecasting is the method of constructing predictions dependent on historic and current data and…
Q: orecasting is the primary function for predicting the future using the available data to make the…
A: Forecasting is the primary function for forecasting the future and making decisions based on the…
Q: Simple exponential smoothing with α= 0.3 is being used to forecast sales of digital cameras at…
A: Given Information: Sales in September: 120 units Forecast in September: 100 units Alpha = 0.3…
Q: The intuition behind the MSE metric to evaluate old forecasts is:a. to sum up the forecast errors.b.…
A: Forecast helps in identifying the trend of data by analyzing the past data. Forecast does not…
Q: Which of the following smoothing constant would make an exponential smoothing forecast equivalent to…
A: alpha of 1.0 leads to an exponential smoothing forecast similar to a naive forecast.
Q: Simple exponential smoothing with a 5 0.3 is being used to forecast sales of digital cameras at…
A: Given Smoothing constant a=0.3 Forecast for September = 100 cameras Sales in September = 120 cameras
Q: Forecasts affect planning but not the other management functions.
A: This do not require any introduction
Q: Develop a forecast for the fourth quarter using a three-quarter, weighted moving average. Weight the…
A: In the given data, actual sales are presented over the past 21 months, There are four quarters in…
Q: What type of analytics seeks to recognize what is going on as well as the likely forecast and make…
A: Analytics which involves predictions based on historical and current data is known as predictive…
Q: 9-The approach that uses the organization's current level of employment as the starting point for…
A: Every business enterprise is required to assess its staffing requirements over a specific time…
Q: Forecasts may be influenced by a product's position in its life cycle.. A) TRUE B) FALSE
A: The life cycle of a product defines the different stages from its beginning to its end in the market…
Q: snip
A: An exponential smoothing forecast becomes more responsive to changes in a data series when its alpha…
Q: Lori Cook has developed the following forecasting model: ^y=45.0+4.20x,…
A: Using the given Forecasting model the forecast for air conditioner at various level of temperature…
Q: 6.For a random process, the most appropriate forecast is the naive forecast True or False
A: According to the random walk hypothesis, stock market values fluctuate at random and cannot be…
Q: What is an Advantage of the MAPE? a. It can be compared across different forecast items. b. It…
A: The mean absolute percentage blunder, otherwise called mean absolute percentage deviation, is a…
Q: A time-series forecasting model uses a series of past data points to make a forecast. True False
A: Forecasting is the process of prediction in which sales demand is estimated using historic…
Q: A manufacturer of printed circuit boards uses exponentialsmoothing with trend to forecast monthly…
A: The image given in step 2 gives a detailed solution of the question that has been asked.
Q: If a forecast can be made using a quantitative model, a forecaster need not use her personal opinion…
A: This do not require any introduction
Q: Which of the following concepts explain why we tend to make errors in affective forecasting?
A: Affective forecasting refers to the prediction of future events on the basis of a current emotion.
Q: Moving Average method is always superior to Weighted moving average method for time series forecast
A: The moving method average is
Q: Forecasting time horizons include:a) long range. b) medium range.c) short range. d) all of the…
A: Forecasting is that of the method by that managers make estimates about future events. It's…
Q: 2-The correlation between rate and base are called the dynamic forecast. Select one: O True O False
A: Correlation is described as the relationship that exists between two different variables…
Q: snip
A: Forecasting is a technique of estimating or predicting future trends with the help of surveyed data…
Q: Which forecasting model assumes that what will happen in the immediately succeeding period is most…
A: Forecasting is a Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) technique that considers historical data for…
Q: You have a data set that includes time period and past sales data, and you want to use a time series…
A: Ans// D) Weighted moving average Time series forecasting makes the prediction about the future by…
Q: Forecasts are generally wrong.a. Why are forecasts generally wrong?
A: Forecasting is used to predict future changes or demand patterns. Forecasting is the process of…
Q: All the following are techniques used in quantitative forecasting except. A. Regression analysis B.…
A: Forecasting refers to the approach of making predictions on the basis of present and past…
Q: Which of the following is a forecasting error measure? A. CAT B. SAD C. MAD D. BAD
A: (C) MAD MAD is used to measure the forecast Error
Q: Through forecasting, organizations attempt to adapt to or change the future as predicted through…
A: This do not require any introduction
Q: Qualitative forecasts and causal forecasts are not particularly useful as inputs to inventory and…
A: Qualitative forecasts and casual forecasts are not specifically helpful as inputs to the inventory…
Q: Forecasting is an important guard against guess work in decision making. In light of this statement…
A: Every firm engages in a annual planning process for production where the marketing function provides…
Q: Forecast is calculating estimates of future cycle/s based on data of past cycles -- there is no…
A: Forecasting is a prediction method that can use historical data and current market trends and…
Q: Forecasting is a prediction rather than a reality
A: The term forecasting is a technique that uses the historical data as inputs to make the informed…
Q: Exponential Smoothing gives always better results than any other similar method used for time-series…
A: Forecasting in the business management is described as the process through the probable demand in…
Q: The intuition behind the MAE metric to evaluate old forecasts is:a. to sum up the forecast errors.b.…
A: The intuition behind the MAE metric to evaluate old forecasts is: To sum up the forecast errors. To…
Q: Two independent methods of forecasting based on judgment and experience have been prepared each…
A: Given data Month Sales Forecast1 Forecast 2 1 770 771 769 2 789 785 787 3 794 790 792…
Q: Time-series analysis is based on the assumption that: a. there are dependable correlations between…
A: According to above questions Time series analysis and forecasting are based on the assumption that…
Q: a. Find the tracking signal for each month. (Negative values should be indicated by a minus sign.…
A: Based on the above provided question, the tracking signal for each month can be obtained as below:
Q: The moving average forecast method should only be used with time series data demonstrating a linear…
A: A moving average, which is indeed the average of any subset of values, is a method for gaining a…
Q: Using the latest observation in a sequence of data to forecast the next period is a. a naive…
A: Find the answer below: The Correct answer is a) a naïve forecast
Q: Consider the following actual and forecast demand levels for Big Mac hamburgers at a local…
A: Let, Ft+1 = Forecast for friday Yt = 48.00 Ft = 77.60 α = 0.40 Thus expression for the forecast for…
Q: A MAD (Mean Absolute Deviation) of 17.3 suggests which of the following? O There is an…
A: Forecast Bias can be defined as a movement to either over-forecast (forecast is more than the…
Q: Discuss why are forecasts generally wrong
A: Analysts' forecasts of future commodity needs are frequently incorrect for the reasons stated:
Q: State what is a qualitative forecasting model and it uses under forecasting
A: To be determined: what is a qualitative forecasting model and it uses under forecasting
Q: The errors in a particular forecast are as follows: 3, -3, 4, 0, -2. What is the tracking signal for…
A: Error = Actual demand - forecast Absolute Error = Positive value of error MAD = average of…
Q: The last-value forecasting method: a. is quick and easy to prepare. b. is easy for users to…
A: A strategy that uses previous data as inputs to make well-informed predictions about the direction…
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- The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?The file P13_22.xlsx contains total monthly U.S. retail sales data. While holding out the final six months of observations for validation purposes, use the method of moving averages with a carefully chosen span to forecast U.S. retail sales in the next year. Comment on the performance of your model. What makes this time series more challenging to forecast?The file P13_02.xlsx contains five years of monthly data on sales (number of units sold) for a particular company. The company suspects that except for random noise, its sales are growing by a constant percentage each month and will continue to do so for at least the near future. a. Explain briefly whether the plot of the series visually supports the companys suspicion. b. By what percentage are sales increasing each month? c. What is the MAPE for the forecast model in part b? In words, what does it measure? Considering its magnitude, does the model seem to be doing a good job? d. In words, how does the model make forecasts for future months? Specifically, given the forecast value for the last month in the data set, what simple arithmetic could you use to obtain forecasts for the next few months?
- The file P13_29.xlsx contains monthly time series data for total U.S. retail sales of building materials (which includes retail sales of building materials, hardware and garden supply stores, and mobile home dealers). a. Is seasonality present in these data? If so, characterize the seasonality pattern. b. Use Winters method to forecast this series with smoothing constants = = 0.1 and = 0.3. Does the forecast series seem to track the seasonal pattern well? What are your forecasts for the next 12 months?The file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars) through credit unions. a. Use these data to forecast consumer revolving credit through credit unions for the next 12 months. Do it in two ways. First, fit an exponential trend to the series. Second, use Holts method with optimized smoothing constants. b. Which of these two methods appears to provide the best forecasts? Answer by comparing their MAPE values.The file P13_28.xlsx contains monthly retail sales of U.S. liquor stores. a. Is seasonality present in these data? If so, characterize the seasonality pattern. b. Use Winters method to forecast this series with smoothing constants = = 0.1 and = 0.3. Does the forecast series seem to track the seasonal pattern well? What are your forecasts for the next 12 months?
- The file P13_26.xlsx contains the monthly number of airline tickets sold by the CareFree Travel Agency. a. Create a time series chart of the data. Based on what you see, which of the exponential smoothing models do you think will provide the best forecasting model? Why? b. Use simple exponential smoothing to forecast these data, using a smoothing constant of 0.1. c. Repeat part b, but search for the smoothing constant that makes RMSE as small as possible. Does it make much of an improvement over the model in part b?Under what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?The owner of a restaurant in Bloomington, Indiana, has recorded sales data for the past 19 years. He has also recorded data on potentially relevant variables. The data are listed in the file P13_17.xlsx. a. Estimate a simple regression equation involving annual sales (the dependent variable) and the size of the population residing within 10 miles of the restaurant (the explanatory variable). Interpret R-square for this regression. b. Add another explanatory variableannual advertising expendituresto the regression equation in part a. Estimate and interpret this expanded equation. How does the R-square value for this multiple regression equation compare to that of the simple regression equation estimated in part a? Explain any difference between the two R-square values. How can you use the adjusted R-squares for a comparison of the two equations? c. Add one more explanatory variable to the multiple regression equation estimated in part b. In particular, estimate and interpret the coefficients of a multiple regression equation that includes the previous years advertising expenditure. How does the inclusion of this third explanatory variable affect the R-square, compared to the corresponding values for the equation of part b? Explain any changes in this value. What does the adjusted R-square for the new equation tell you?
- Management of a home appliance store wants to understand the growth pattern of the monthly sales of a new technology device over the past two years. The managers have recorded the relevant data in the file P13_05.xlsx. Have the sales of this device been growing linearly over the past 24 months? By examining the results of a linear trend line, explain why or why not.The file P13_19.xlsx contains the weekly sales of a particular brand of paper towels at a supermarket for a one-year period. a. Using a span of 3, forecast the sales of this product for the next 10 weeks with the moving averages method. How well does this method with span 3 forecast the known observations in this series? b. Repeat part a with a span of 10. c. Which of these two spans appears to be more appropriate? Justify your choice.Do the sales prices of houses in a given community vary systematically with their sizes (as measured in square feet)? Answer this question by estimating a simple regression equation where the sales price of the house is the dependent variable, and the size of the house is the explanatory variable. Use the sample data given in P13_06.xlsx. Interpret your estimated equation, the associated R-square value, and the associated standard error of estimate.