Following is forecast for economic situation and Rachel’s portfolio returns next year, calculate the expected return, variance and standard deviation of the portfolio. (4 marks) State of economy Probability Rate of returns Mild Recession 0.35 - 5% Growth 0.45 15% Strong Growth 0.20 30%

Based on economists' forecasts and analysis, 1-year Treasury bill rates and liquidity premiums for the next four years are expected to be as follows: R1 = 0.80% = 1.95% E(201) E(3r1) E(41) = 2.05% = 2.35% Years 1 2 3 4 42= 0.07% 43= 0.11% L4= 0.13% Using the liquidity premium theory, determine the current (long-term) rates. (Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to 2 decimal places.) Current (Long-term) Rates % % % %

Assume that the one-year rate (short-term) over the next 3 years are 2023: 4% 2024: 5% 2025: 6% (1) Use the expectations theory to calculate the two-year rate (long-term) and the three-year rate (long-term). (2) Draw a yield curve.

A portfolio has a 4.0 percent chance of losing 15 percent or more according to the VaR when T = 1.This can be interpreted to mean that the portfolio is expected to have an annual loss of 15 percent or more once in every how many years?

Bhupatbhai

Leon has in his investment a portfolio that paid him the rate of returns of 14 %, -13%, 15.6%, 17% and 19.5% over the past five years. Required: a)Calculate the arithmetic average return (AAR) and geometric average return (GAR) of the portfolio? If someone asks you what is the actual compounding rate of return of Leon’s portfolio over the past five year, which one (AAR or GAR) will be a better answer?  b)Following is forecast for economic situation and Leon’s portfolio returns next year, calculate the expected return, variance and standard deviation of the portfolio.    State of economy Probability Rate of returns Mild Recession 0.25 -2.5% Normal 0.45 13.5% Growth 0.30 20%   c)         Assume that expected return of the stock A in Leon’s portfolio is 13.2%. Beta of this stock is 1.2, risk free rate is 3.5%. Calculate market portfolio rate of return, which is used to compute the expected return of this stock by Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)?