MATLAB: An Introduction with Applications
MATLAB: An Introduction with Applications
6th Edition
ISBN: 9781119256830
Author: Amos Gilat
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Inc
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Firing Blanks?
The following is analysis from my senior undergraduate thesis from 2015 (when I was an Anteater;
Zot Zot) examining the effect of California's assault weapon's ban on crime rates. This paper uses a
modified difference-in-difference estimator. The treatment group is Non-CA states, who let the
federal assault weapons ban in 2004 lapse while California maintained a state assault weapons ban,
serving as our control. The data examines per capita crime, various controls, as well as
treatment/control and pre/post treatment for counties that lie exactly on the border of CA with
Nevada, Oregon, and Arizona. I estimated the following regression:
In(Murder) it = -8.36 0.02Povertyit -0.16Treatit - 0.40 Postit
(5.57) (0.03)
(0.5)
(0.012)
-0.06CountyUnemploymentit 0.14(POST X Treat)
(0.35)
(0.08)
In(Murder) the logged murder rate per 10,000 people.
Poverty is the percentage of the population within each county that is below the Federal poverty
line.
Treat is a binary variable = 1 for states that let the federal assault weapons ban expire (non-CA
counties), O for CA.
Post is a binary variable = 1 for years after the federal assault weapons ban expire. (2004 onward), or
for pre-2004.
County Unemployment is the unemployment rate.
The interaction term, Post X Treat measures the interaction between counties within the treatment
states. That is, the effect of being a
Round to 2 decimal places and include a negative sign if necessary.
A. Should I have run RTO instead? Assume at the 95% confidence level and a Z distribution. Answer
"YES" or "NO".
B. What is the T-statistic associated with the unemployment rate? Round to 2 decimal places and
include a negative sign if necessary.
C. What is the t-critical value associated with the 95% confidence level and a Z distribution? Round
to 2 decimal places.
D. What is the effect of being a treated state, before the treatment year? That is, what is the effect
of being a county that removed an assault weapons ban before the year the ban expired. Include a
negative value if the answer is negative, round to 2 decimal places.
E. Is unemployment rate a determinant of the murder rate in this data? Answer "YES" or "NO"
F. Is the treatment effect statistically significant at the 95% confidence level? That is, did removing
the assault weapons ban have a statistically significant effect on the murder rate? Hint: Think about
which coefficient we care about in a diff-in-diff set up. Answer "YES" or "NO".
G. Does running this as a two-way fixed effects model make sense? Answer by inputting the number
that is associated with the correct statement:
expand button
Transcribed Image Text:Firing Blanks? The following is analysis from my senior undergraduate thesis from 2015 (when I was an Anteater; Zot Zot) examining the effect of California's assault weapon's ban on crime rates. This paper uses a modified difference-in-difference estimator. The treatment group is Non-CA states, who let the federal assault weapons ban in 2004 lapse while California maintained a state assault weapons ban, serving as our control. The data examines per capita crime, various controls, as well as treatment/control and pre/post treatment for counties that lie exactly on the border of CA with Nevada, Oregon, and Arizona. I estimated the following regression: In(Murder) it = -8.36 0.02Povertyit -0.16Treatit - 0.40 Postit (5.57) (0.03) (0.5) (0.012) -0.06CountyUnemploymentit 0.14(POST X Treat) (0.35) (0.08) In(Murder) the logged murder rate per 10,000 people. Poverty is the percentage of the population within each county that is below the Federal poverty line. Treat is a binary variable = 1 for states that let the federal assault weapons ban expire (non-CA counties), O for CA. Post is a binary variable = 1 for years after the federal assault weapons ban expire. (2004 onward), or for pre-2004. County Unemployment is the unemployment rate. The interaction term, Post X Treat measures the interaction between counties within the treatment states. That is, the effect of being a Round to 2 decimal places and include a negative sign if necessary. A. Should I have run RTO instead? Assume at the 95% confidence level and a Z distribution. Answer "YES" or "NO". B. What is the T-statistic associated with the unemployment rate? Round to 2 decimal places and include a negative sign if necessary. C. What is the t-critical value associated with the 95% confidence level and a Z distribution? Round to 2 decimal places. D. What is the effect of being a treated state, before the treatment year? That is, what is the effect of being a county that removed an assault weapons ban before the year the ban expired. Include a negative value if the answer is negative, round to 2 decimal places. E. Is unemployment rate a determinant of the murder rate in this data? Answer "YES" or "NO" F. Is the treatment effect statistically significant at the 95% confidence level? That is, did removing the assault weapons ban have a statistically significant effect on the murder rate? Hint: Think about which coefficient we care about in a diff-in-diff set up. Answer "YES" or "NO". G. Does running this as a two-way fixed effects model make sense? Answer by inputting the number that is associated with the correct statement:
Post is a binary variable = 1 for years after the federal assault weapons ban expire. (2004 onward), or
for pre-2004.
County Unemployment is the unemployment rate.
The interaction term, Post X Treat measures the interaction between counties within the treatment
states. That is, the effect of being a
Round to 2 decimal places and include a negative sign if necessary.
A. Should I have run RTO instead? Assume at the 95% confidence level and a Z distribution. Answer
"YES" or "NO".
B. What is the T-statistic associated with the unemployment rate? Round to 2 decimal places and
include a negative sign if necessary.
C. What is the t-critical value associated with the 95% confidence level and a Z distribution? Round
to 2 decimal places.
D. What is the effect of being a treated state, before the treatment year? That is, what is the effect
of being a county that removed an assault weapons ban before the year the ban expired. Include a
negative value if the answer is negative, round to 2 decimal places.
E. Is unemployment rate a determinant of the murder rate in this data? Answer "YES" or "NO"
F. Is the treatment effect statistically significant at the 95% confidence level? That is, did removing
the assault weapons ban have a statistically significant effect on the murder rate? Hint: Think about
which coefficient we care about in a diff-in-diff set up. Answer "YES" or "NO".
G. Does running this as a two-way fixed effects model make sense? Answer by inputting the number
that is associated with the correct statement:
1. No, because there really shouldn't be anything different between bordering counties in CA
and counties in Nevada, Arizona, or Oregon
2. No, because we only really need to account for county level differences in CA, Nevada,
Arizona, and Oregon
3. No, because we only really need to account for how murder changes over time
4. Yes, because crime probably has a time trend component that is fixed across counties as well
as having some unobserved fixed characteristics between counties that we should account
for.
5. Yes, because we need to control for simultaneity --- did the state pass assault weapons ban in
response to higher crime or did the crime rate respond to the passage of the assault weapons
ban?
H. Suppose that you believe that undergraduate Harrison was an idiot and omitted the variable
education. You also know:
Cov(Educ, Poverty) < 0
Cov(Educ, Murder) < 0
What is the direction of the bias on the coefficient for Poverty? Answer "UPWARD" or
"DOWNWARD"
expand button
Transcribed Image Text:Post is a binary variable = 1 for years after the federal assault weapons ban expire. (2004 onward), or for pre-2004. County Unemployment is the unemployment rate. The interaction term, Post X Treat measures the interaction between counties within the treatment states. That is, the effect of being a Round to 2 decimal places and include a negative sign if necessary. A. Should I have run RTO instead? Assume at the 95% confidence level and a Z distribution. Answer "YES" or "NO". B. What is the T-statistic associated with the unemployment rate? Round to 2 decimal places and include a negative sign if necessary. C. What is the t-critical value associated with the 95% confidence level and a Z distribution? Round to 2 decimal places. D. What is the effect of being a treated state, before the treatment year? That is, what is the effect of being a county that removed an assault weapons ban before the year the ban expired. Include a negative value if the answer is negative, round to 2 decimal places. E. Is unemployment rate a determinant of the murder rate in this data? Answer "YES" or "NO" F. Is the treatment effect statistically significant at the 95% confidence level? That is, did removing the assault weapons ban have a statistically significant effect on the murder rate? Hint: Think about which coefficient we care about in a diff-in-diff set up. Answer "YES" or "NO". G. Does running this as a two-way fixed effects model make sense? Answer by inputting the number that is associated with the correct statement: 1. No, because there really shouldn't be anything different between bordering counties in CA and counties in Nevada, Arizona, or Oregon 2. No, because we only really need to account for county level differences in CA, Nevada, Arizona, and Oregon 3. No, because we only really need to account for how murder changes over time 4. Yes, because crime probably has a time trend component that is fixed across counties as well as having some unobserved fixed characteristics between counties that we should account for. 5. Yes, because we need to control for simultaneity --- did the state pass assault weapons ban in response to higher crime or did the crime rate respond to the passage of the assault weapons ban? H. Suppose that you believe that undergraduate Harrison was an idiot and omitted the variable education. You also know: Cov(Educ, Poverty) < 0 Cov(Educ, Murder) < 0 What is the direction of the bias on the coefficient for Poverty? Answer "UPWARD" or "DOWNWARD"
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