Eunice, in The scenario, wants to determine how each of the 3 companies will decide on possible new investments. He was able to determine the new investment pay off for each of the three choices as well as the probability of the two types of market. If a company will launch product 1, it will gain 125,000 if the market is successful and lose 125,000 if the market is a failure. If a company will launch product 2, it will gain 75,000 if the market is successful and lose 75,000 if the market will fail. If a company decides not to launch any of the product, it will not be affected whether the market will succeed or fail. There is a 53% probability that the market will succeed and 47% probability that the market will fail. What will be the companies decision based on EMV? What is the decision of each company based on expected utility value?

The company’s marketing manager estimates that there is a 60% chance that demand will rise faster than the current rate, a 30% chance that it will continue to rise at the current rate and a 10% chance that it will increase at a slower rate or fall. Assuming that the company’s objective is to maximize expected net present value, determine (a)The course of action which it should take (b)The expected value of perfect information.

Pete is considering placing a bet on the NCAA playoffgame between Indiana and Purdue. Without any furtherinformation, he believes that each team has an equal chanceto win. If he wins the bet, he will win $10,000; if he loses,he will lose $11,000. Before betting, he may pay Bobby$1,000 for his inside prediction on the game; 60% of thetime, Bobby will predict that Indiana will win and 40% ofthe time, Bobby will predict that Purdue will win. WhenBobby says that IU will win, IU has a 70% chance ofwinning, and when Bobby says that Purdue will win, IU hasonly a 20% chance of winning. Determine how Pete canmaximize his total expected profit. What is EVSI? What isEVPI?

At the beginning of each day, a patient in the hospital is classifed into one of the three conditions: good, fair or critical. At the beginning of the next day, the patient will either still be in the hospital and be in good, fair or critical condition or will be discharged in one of three conditions: improved, unimproved, or dead. The transistion probabilities for this situation are                                         Good    Fair    Critical                        Good         0.65     0.20    0.05                        Fair            0.50     0.30     0.12                        Critical       0.51     0.25     0.20               Improved       Unimproved         Dead Good       0.06               0.03                    0.01 Fair          0.03               0.02                    0.03 Critical     0.01               0.01                    0.02   For example a patient who begins the day in fair condition has a 12% chance of being in critical condition the next day and a 3%…

Sales of a company (in $100,000) for the last 7 years are listed in the following table. Use the data as given in the table, do not include the hundred thousand at the end of the values. Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 1 6 15 10 4 2 10 18 15 7 3 14 26 23 12 4 19 28 25 18 5 22 34 28 21 6 24 36 30 20 7 28 40 35 27 What are the adjusted R^2, and forecasts for Q1, Q2, Q3, and Q4 of Year 8 using this model? 4 decimals. Adjusted R^2: Q1: Q2: Q3: Q4:

Larry’s Bakery operates a chain of ten high-end bakeries. Larry, the owner of these amazing bakeries, is looking at two options to increase his revenues throughout his chain of bakeries. The first option is to launch a loyalty card. Doing this would cost Larry $500,000. The probability that this would result in high sales is 0.6, which means the probability it would result in low sales is 0.4. If high sales are generated from this option, Larry can expect to see additional revenues of $1,000,000. If low sales are generated from this option, Larry can expect to see additional revenues of only $750,000. The second option Larry has is to cut the prices throughout his bakeries. Doing so would cost him $300,000. The probability that this would result in high sales is 0.8. If doing this results in high sales, Larry can expect to see additional revenues of $800,000. If it results in low sales, he can expect to see additional revenues of only $500,000. Larry obviously has a tough decision…

Do the following problems using either TreePlan A student is deciding which scholarships (out of two) to accept. The first scholarship is worth $10,000 but carries the condition that recipients cannot accept another other forms of income (such as other scholarships). The second scholarship is awarded in a competition, where this student has a 50% chance of earning $7,000, a 40% chance of earning $10,000, and a 10% chance of earning $15,000. The student must inform the administrator of the first scholarship whether she will be accepting their offer today. A. Develop a decision tree to determine which scholarship this student should accept (using our normal decision criteria). B. Under what circumstance might the student accept the other scholarship?

Use the table below to answer the questions that follow and caculate the Expected Monetary Value(EMV) of the different outcomesDECISION TABLE WITH CONDITIONAL VALUESSTATE OF NATUREFAVORABLE OUTCOME UNFAVORABLE OUTCOMEALTERNATIVES ($) ($)Start a big Company 2,000,000 -500,000Start a small company 800,000 -200,000Build Nothing 0 0Probabilities 0.3 0.7Calculate the following The EMV  Maximin criterion  Maximax criterion  Minimax criterion

A product manager at Clean & Brite (C&B) wants to determine whether her company should market a new brand of toothpaste. If this new product succeeds in the marketplace, C&B estimates that it could earn $1,800,000 in future profits from the sale of the new toothpaste. If this new product fails, however, the company expects that it could lose approximately $750,000. If C&B chooses not to market this new brand, the product manager believes that there would be little, if any, impact on the profits earned through sales of C&B’s other products. The manager has estimated that the new toothpaste brand will succeed with probability 0.50. Before making her decision regarding this toothpaste product, the manager can spend $75,000 on a market research study. Based on similar studies with past products, C&B believes that the study will predict a successful product, given that product would actually be a success, with probability 0.75. It also believes that the study will…

What is the probability that the satellite described in Solved Problem 4 will fail between 5 and 12years after being placed into earth orbit?