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To maximize expected profit, what strategy should the C&B product manager follow?
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Calculate and interpret EVI for this decision problem.
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Calculate and interpret EVPI for this decision problem.
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- The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars): State of Nature Low Demand Medium Demand High Demand Decision Alternative s1 s2 s3 Manufacture, d1 -20 40 100 Purchase, d2 10 45 70 The state-of-nature probabilities are P(s1) = 0.35, P(s2) = 0.35, and P(s3) = 0.30. Use a decision tree to recommend a decision.Recommended decision: Use EVPI to determine whether Gorman should attempt to obtain a better estimate of demand. EVPI: $ fill in the blank 3 A test market study of the potential demand for the product is expected to report either a favorable (F) or unfavorable (U) condition. The relevant conditional probabilities are as follows: P(F | s1) = 0.10 P(U | s1) = 0.90 P(F | s2) = 0.40 P(U |…arrow_forwardThe CEO of a fictional pharmaceutical marketing company in India has positioned the company as the ethical alternative to its competitors, going as far as to change the company's tagline from "Health for everyone" to "Health with integrity." The company has a public ethical policy and has been transparent with its operations. So, when he learns that the firm's star salesperson who earned millions of dollars for the company, falsified the numbers on a recent report, the CEO must decide whether to fire him. Sales have been very difficult with the Covid-19 pandemic and people afraid to venture out in public and spend money. The salesman had created a sales matrix that had allowed sales to remain at peak levels during the difficult times however, sales was starting to increase as Covid-19 restrictions were being gradually increased. In fact, the company had gone public and applauded the salesman for his effort and was announcing him as Vice President for Sales and Marketing. a. Is…arrow_forwardThe company is considering whether or not they should drill the land. The cost of drilling is estimated to be $4 million. The company believes there are three possible findings after drilling the land: dry, wet and gushing. The probabilities for these outcomes are 0.5, 0.3 and 0.2, respectively. If the land is found to be dry, it obviously offers no profit. If the land is wet, it brings a potential profit of $10 million. If gushing, the potential profit from the land is $30 million. Answer the following questions, Q1 and Q2. Q1: Draw a decision tree to show the decision for this company based on the EMV criterion. Nodes and arcs are provided below and you can make more of them by using "copy" and "paste" Q2: The company has the option of using some new technology and equipment combined with seismic survey data to learn the presence of oil (dry, wet or gushing) before drilling the land. However, it requires $2.3 million investment for the technology, equipment, and required analysis. Is…arrow_forward
- Suppose the equilibrium price for good quality used cars is $20,000. And the equilibrium price for poor quality used cars is $10,000. Assume a potential used car buyer has imperfect information as to the condition of any given used car. Assume this potential buyer believes the probability a given used car is good quality is .60 and the probability a given used car is low quality is .40. Assume the seller has perfect information on all cars in inventory. If the seller sells the buyer a good quality car, what is the net-benefit to the seller? a. A net gain of $4,000. b. A net gain of $20,000. c. A net loss of $4,000. d. A net loss of $10,000.arrow_forwardWhich experimental method involves randomly assigning participants to one of two groups in order to collect data and compare the performance of two distinct options? This method has been emphasized in various tech companies (e.g., Amazon, Netflix, Rent the Runway), and it is an useful method for uncovering causality between variables. Most tech companies heavily use this method for their data analytics process. Multivariate testing Bucket testing Web usability testing A/B testing Conjoint analysisarrow_forward
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