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- The following problem submitted by Daniel Hahn of Blairstown, Iowa, appeared in the Ask Marilyn column of Parade magazine. Source: Parade magazine. You discover two booths at a carnival. Each is tended by an honest man with a pair of covered coin shakers. In each shaker is a single coin, and you are allowed to bet upon the chance that both coins in that booths shakers are heads after the man in the booth shakes them, does an inspection, and can tell you that at least one of the shakers contains a head. The difference is that the man in the first booth always looks inside both of his shakers, whereas the man in the second booth looks inside only one of the shakers. Where will you stand the best chance?A city uses three pumps to carry water from a river to a reservoir. Pumps A and B are new, and have a probability of failing of 0.015 on any day. Pump C is older, and has a probability of failure of 0.08 on any day. Pumps A and B operate Monday-Friday. On Saturday, pumps A and C operate while pump B is serviced. On Sunday, pumps B and C operate while pump A is serviced. Answer the following questions, assuming that the pumps operate independently of one another, and independently from day to day. Determine the probability that pump A works on a day that it is in use. Find the probability that pumps A and B both fail on a day they are both in use. Compute the probability that at least one pump fails on any Sunday. Find the probability that pump A works, and C fails on any Saturday. Determine the probability that no pumps fail in a week.Consider two types of home insurance: theft insurance and carthquake insurance. Each year there is a 1% chance that the home will be robbed and a 1% chance that the home will be damaged by an canhquake. Suppose an insurance company writes 100,000 policies of each type for homeowners. The risk of earthquake is a type of common risk, while the risk of theft is independent across households. At the beginning of the year, the homeowner expects 1% chance of placing a claim for either type of insurance. However, at the end of the year, the homeowner will have either filled a claim (100%) or not (0%). The standard deviation (expressed in percentage terms) of the claim for an individual homeowner in case of earthquake is kype your answer The standard deviation (expressed in percentage terms) of the claim for an individual homeowner in case of theft is type your answer. The standard deviation (expressed in percentage terms) of the percentage of claims for the insurance company in case of…
- A Ph.D. graduate has applied for a job with two colleges: A and B. The graduate feels that she has a 60% chance of receiving an offer from college A and a 50% chance of receiving an offer from college B. If she receives an offer from college B, she believes that she has an 80% chance of receiving an offer from college A. Let A = receiving an offer from college A, and let B = receiving an offer from college B. a. What is the probability that both colleges will make her an offer? b. What is the probability that at least one college will make her an offer? c. If she receives an offer from college B, what is the probability that she will not receive an offer from college A?Consider two products, A and B, both of which have the same purchase probability.Product A has a population size of 1000 and a 50 percent awareness probability. ProductB has a population size of 10,000 and a 5 percent awareness probability. Which productdo you expect to sell more?a. Product Ab. Product Bc. They are expected to sell the same amount.You survey college bound and find that 85% plan to liv eon campus, 35% plan to have a car while at campus and 5% plan to live off campus and not have a car. Is there an association between living on campus and having a car at college?
- There is a 30% chance that the economy will be good next year and a 70% chance that it will be bad. If the economy is good, there is a 60% chance of a bull market, a 30% chance of a normal market, and a 10% chance of a bear market. If the economy is bad, there is a 15% chance of a bull market, 30% chance of a normal market, and a 55% chance of a bear market.Given the market is a normal market next year, what is the probability that the economy is good? 0.45 0.31 0.70 0.30Alonzo, Bob, and Casper work bussing tables at a restaurant. Alonzo has a 35% chance, Bob has a 40% chance, and Casper has a 25% chance of bussing tables in the middle area of the restaurant. If Alonzo is bussing tables, he has a 5% chance of breaking a dish. If Bob is bussing tables, he has a 2% chance of breaking a dish. Finally, if Casper is bussing tables, he has a 4% chance of breaking a dish. If there is a broken dish in the middle of the restaurant, what is the probability it was broken by Casper?Two professors at a nearby university want to co-author a new textbook in either economics or statistics. They feel that if they write an economics book they have a 50% chance of placing it with a major publisher where it should ultimately sell about 40,000 copies. If they can’t get a major publisher to take it, then they feel they have an 80% chance of placing it with a smaller publisher, with sales of 30,000 copies. On the other hand if they write a statistics book, they feel they have a 40% chance of placing it with a major publisher, and it should result in ultimate sales of about 50,000 copies. If they can’t get a major publisher to take it, they feel they have a 50% chance of placing it with a smaller publisher, with ultimate sales of 35,000 copies. What is the probability that the economics book would wind up being placed with a smaller publisher?
- Consider two stocks. Stock 1 always sells for $10 or$20. If stock 1 is selling for $10 today, there is a .80 chancethat it will sell for $10 tomorrow. If it is selling for $20today, there is a .90 chance that it will sell for $20 tomorrow.Stock 2 always sells for $10 or $25. If stock 2 sells todayfor $10, there is a .90 chance that it will sell tomorrow for$10. If it sells today for $25, there is a .85 chance that itwill sell tomorrow for $25. On the average, which stock willsell for a higher price? Find and interpret all mean firstpassage times.An aircraft emergency locator transmitter (ELT) is a device designed to transmit a signal in the case of a crash. The Altigauge Manufacturing Company makes 80% of the ELTS, the Bryant Company makes 15% of them, and the Chartair Company makes the other 5%. The ELTS made by Altigauge have a 4% rate of defects, the Bryant ELTS have a 6% rate of defects, and the Chartair ELTS have a 9% rate of defects (which helps to explain why Chartair has the lowest market share). a. If an ELT is randomly selected from the general population of all ELTS, find the probability that it was made by the Altigauge Manufacturing Company. b. If a randomly selected ELT is then tested and is found to be defective, find the probability that it was made by the Altigauge Manufacturing Company. c. What is the probablity that a randomly selected ELT is defective?An aircraft emergency locator transmitter (ELT) is a device designed to transmit a signal in the case of a crash. The Altigauge Manufacturing Company makes 80% of the ELTS, the Bryant Company makes 15% of them, and the Chartair Company makes the other 5%. The ELTS made by Altigauge have a 4% rate of defects, the Bryant ELTS have a 6% rate of defects, and the Chartair ELTS have a 9% rate of defects (which helps to explain why Chartair has the lowest market share). i) If an ELT is randomly selected from the general population of all ELTS, find the probability that it was made by the Altigauge Manufacturing Company. If a randomly selected ELT is then tested and is found to be ii) defective, find the probability that it was made by the Altigauge Manufacturing Company.