Define the term decomposition of a time series?
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A: The seasonal data needs to be determined.
Q: snip
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Q: Define Decomposition of a Time Series
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A: Th answer for the above question is as follows:
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Q: Determine the forecast of next year’s quarterly sales revenue for this line of laptops. NOTE: For…
A:
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Q: Causal relationships are potentially useful for which component of a time series?
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Q: What distinguishes seasonality from cycles in time series analysis?
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Define the term decomposition of a time series?
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- The director of the Riley County, Kansas, library system would like to forecast evening patron usage for next week. Below are the data for the past 4 weeks: Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Week 1 210 178 250 215 160 180 Week 2 215 180 250 213 165 185 Week 3 220 176 260 220 175 190 Week 4 225 178 260 225 176 190 a) Calculate a seasonal index for each day of the week (enter your responses rounded to three decimal places). Day of the week Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Seasonal indexFollowing data on the demand for sewing machines manufactured by Taylor and Son Co. have been compiled for the past 10 years. Year 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 78 1976 1977 1978 1979 99 1980 106 Demand 58 65 73 76 87 88 93 in (1000 units) Please estimate the value of demand for next 3 years using trend analysis.For the E-Commerce Retail Sales (Million$) data given in the table below, provide estimates from the 1st Quarter (Q1) of 2016 to the 3rd Quarter (Q3) of 2017 by using two models: 1) Single Exponential Smoothing with α=0.3 2) Moving Average with k=2. Calculate MAPE for each model. Quarter Year Actual Q1 2016 86802 Q2 2016 92004 Q3 2016 93795 Q4 2016 124651 Q1 2017 99491 Q2 2017 106590 Q3 2017 108291 Compare two models above (Single Exponential Smoothing and Moving Average) based on their accuracies. Which forecasting method appears to be better? Using the model you choose, provide forecast for the 4th Quarter (Q4) of 2017. Assuming that this model is overestimating, find the actual value of the Q4 of 2017 based on MAPE value. Some residual graphs from the first forecast model (including wider range of E-Commerce Retail Sales data) are given below. What do these graphs tell about the model? Explain each graph.