Practical Management Science
Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN: 9781337406659
Author: WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher: Cengage,
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A statistical program is recommended.
The quarterly sales data (number of copies sold) for a college textbook over the past three years follow.
Quarter Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
1 1,690 1,800 1,850
2 940 900 1,100
3 2,625 2,900 2,930
4 2,500 2,360

2,615

(d) Let t = 1 refer to the observation in Quarter 1 of Year 1; let t = 2 refer to the observation in Quarter 2 of Year 1;... and t = 12 to refer to the observation in Quarter 4 of Year 3. Using the dummy variables defined in part
(b) and also using t, develop an equation to account for seasonal effects and any linear trend in the time series. (Round your numerical values to the nearest integer.)
Ŷ=e+fQrtl + gQrt2 +hQrt3+ i(t− 2) +j-(t−2)Qrtl + k(t− 2)Qrt2 + I(t− 2). Qrt3
Based upon the seasonal effects in the data and linear trend, compute the quarterly forecasts for year 4. (Round your answers to the nearest ten.)
quarter 1 forecast
quarter forecast
quarter 3 forecast
quarter 4 forecast
3204 x
2,260
1,230
3,100
X
X
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Transcribed Image Text:(d) Let t = 1 refer to the observation in Quarter 1 of Year 1; let t = 2 refer to the observation in Quarter 2 of Year 1;... and t = 12 to refer to the observation in Quarter 4 of Year 3. Using the dummy variables defined in part (b) and also using t, develop an equation to account for seasonal effects and any linear trend in the time series. (Round your numerical values to the nearest integer.) Ŷ=e+fQrtl + gQrt2 +hQrt3+ i(t− 2) +j-(t−2)Qrtl + k(t− 2)Qrt2 + I(t− 2). Qrt3 Based upon the seasonal effects in the data and linear trend, compute the quarterly forecasts for year 4. (Round your answers to the nearest ten.) quarter 1 forecast quarter forecast quarter 3 forecast quarter 4 forecast 3204 x 2,260 1,230 3,100 X X
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