Consider the following time series. Quarter Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 70 67 61 48 40 50 3 57 59 52 4 77 80 71 (a) Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data? Is there an indication of a seasonal pattern? O The time series plot shows a horizontal pattern with no seasonal pattern present. O The time series plot shows a trend pattern, but there is also a seasonal pattern in the data. O The time series plot shows a trend pattern with no seasonal pattern present. O The time series plot shows a horizontal pattern, but there is also a seasonal pattern in the data. (b) Use a multiple linear regression model with dummy variables as follows to develop an equation to account for seasonal effects in the data. x, = 1 if quarter 1, 0 otherwise; x, = 1 if quarter 2, 0 otherwise; x, = 1 if quarter 3, 0 otherwise. (c) Compute the quarterly forecasts for the next year. quarter 1 forecast quarter 2 forecast quarter 3 forecast quarter 4 forecast
Consider the following time series. Quarter Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 70 67 61 48 40 50 3 57 59 52 4 77 80 71 (a) Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data? Is there an indication of a seasonal pattern? O The time series plot shows a horizontal pattern with no seasonal pattern present. O The time series plot shows a trend pattern, but there is also a seasonal pattern in the data. O The time series plot shows a trend pattern with no seasonal pattern present. O The time series plot shows a horizontal pattern, but there is also a seasonal pattern in the data. (b) Use a multiple linear regression model with dummy variables as follows to develop an equation to account for seasonal effects in the data. x, = 1 if quarter 1, 0 otherwise; x, = 1 if quarter 2, 0 otherwise; x, = 1 if quarter 3, 0 otherwise. (c) Compute the quarterly forecasts for the next year. quarter 1 forecast quarter 2 forecast quarter 3 forecast quarter 4 forecast
Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter13: Regression And Forecasting Models
Section13.7: Exponential Smoothing Models
Problem 29P: The file P13_29.xlsx contains monthly time series data for total U.S. retail sales of building...
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