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Compute MSE. (Round your answer to two decimal places.) MSE = What is the forecast for week 7? (c) Use a = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Time Series Week Value 1 19 2 12 3 17 4 10 5 18 6 14 Forecast Compute MSE. (Round your answer to two decimal places.) MSE = What is the forecast for week 7? (Round your answer to two decimal places.) (d) Compare the three-week moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using a = 0.2. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE? Explain. The exponential smoothing using a = 0.2 provides a better forecast since it has a smaller MSE than the three-week moving average approach. The three-week moving average provides a better forecast since it has a larger MSE than the smoothing approach. The exponential smoothing using a = 0.2 provides a better forecast since it has a larger MSE than the three-week moving average approach. ○ The three-week moving average provides a better forecast since it has a smaller MSE than the smoothing approach. Centerville Bikes and Stuff (CBS) sells motorcycles and accessories. The number of helmets sold by CBS per week for the past six weeks follows. Week 1 2 3 4 5 Value 19 12 17 10 18 14 (a) Construct a time series plot. Time Series Value 20 18 16 14 0 20 18 16 14 20 18 16 20 18 16 14 www 14 12 10 8 6 6 4 2 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Week Week 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Week Week What type of pattern exists in the data? The data appear to follow a seasonal pattern. The data appear to follow a horizontal pattern. The data appear to follow a cyclical pattern. The data appear to follow a trend pattern. (b) Develop the three-week moving average for this time series. (Round your answers to two decimal places.) Week Time Series Forecast 123 Value 19 12 17 4 10 5 18 6 14

Compute MSE. (Round your answer to two decimal places.) MSE = What is the forecast for week 7? (c) Use a = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Time Series Week Value 1 19 2 12 3 17 4 10 5 18 6 14 Forecast Compute MSE. (Round your answer to two decimal places.) MSE = What is the forecast for week 7? (Round your answer to two decimal places.) (d) Compare the three-week moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using a = 0.2. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE? Explain. The exponential smoothing using a = 0.2 provides a better forecast since it has a smaller MSE than the three-week moving average approach. The three-week moving average provides a better forecast since it has a larger MSE than the smoothing approach. The exponential smoothing using a = 0.2 provides a better forecast since it has a larger MSE than the three-week moving average approach. ○ The three-week moving average provides a better forecast since it has a smaller MSE than the smoothing approach. Centerville Bikes and Stuff (CBS) sells motorcycles and accessories. The number of helmets sold by CBS per week for the past six weeks follows. Week 1 2 3 4 5 Value 19 12 17 10 18 14 (a) Construct a time series plot. Time Series Value 20 18 16 14 0 20 18 16 14 20 18 16 20 18 16 14 www 14 12 10 8 6 6 4 2 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Week Week 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Week Week What type of pattern exists in the data? The data appear to follow a seasonal pattern. The data appear to follow a horizontal pattern. The data appear to follow a cyclical pattern. The data appear to follow a trend pattern. (b) Develop the three-week moving average for this time series. (Round your answers to two decimal places.) Week Time Series Forecast 123 Value 19 12 17 4 10 5 18 6 14

Practical Management Science
Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter13: Regression And Forecasting Models
Section13.6: Moving Averages Models
Problem 22P: The file P13_22.xlsx contains total monthly U.S. retail sales data. While holding out the final six...
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Compute MSE. (Round your answer to two decimal places.) MSE = What is the forecast for week 7? (c) Use a = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Time Series Week Value 1 19 2 12 3 17 4 10 5 18 6 14 Forecast Compute MSE. (Round your answer to two decimal places.) MSE = What is the forecast for week 7? (Round your answer to two decimal places.) (d) Compare the three-week moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using a = 0.2. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE? Explain. The exponential smoothing using a = 0.2 provides a better forecast since it has a smaller MSE than the three-week moving average approach. The three-week moving average provides a better forecast since it has a larger MSE than the smoothing approach. The exponential smoothing using a = 0.2 provides a better forecast since it has a larger MSE than the three-week moving average approach. ○ The three-week moving average provides a better forecast since it has a smaller MSE than the smoothing approach.
Transcribed Image Text:Compute MSE. (Round your answer to two decimal places.) MSE = What is the forecast for week 7? (c) Use a = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Time Series Week Value 1 19 2 12 3 17 4 10 5 18 6 14 Forecast Compute MSE. (Round your answer to two decimal places.) MSE = What is the forecast for week 7? (Round your answer to two decimal places.) (d) Compare the three-week moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using a = 0.2. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE? Explain. The exponential smoothing using a = 0.2 provides a better forecast since it has a smaller MSE than the three-week moving average approach. The three-week moving average provides a better forecast since it has a larger MSE than the smoothing approach. The exponential smoothing using a = 0.2 provides a better forecast since it has a larger MSE than the three-week moving average approach. ○ The three-week moving average provides a better forecast since it has a smaller MSE than the smoothing approach.
Centerville Bikes and Stuff (CBS) sells motorcycles and accessories. The number of helmets sold by CBS per week for the past six weeks follows. Week 1 2 3 4 5 Value 19 12 17 10 18 14 (a) Construct a time series plot. Time Series Value 20 18 16 14 0 20 18 16 14 20 18 16 20 18 16 14 www 14 12 10 8 6 6 4 2 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Week Week 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Week Week What type of pattern exists in the data? The data appear to follow a seasonal pattern. The data appear to follow a horizontal pattern. The data appear to follow a cyclical pattern. The data appear to follow a trend pattern. (b) Develop the three-week moving average for this time series. (Round your answers to two decimal places.) Week Time Series Forecast 123 Value 19 12 17 4 10 5 18 6 14
Transcribed Image Text:Centerville Bikes and Stuff (CBS) sells motorcycles and accessories. The number of helmets sold by CBS per week for the past six weeks follows. Week 1 2 3 4 5 Value 19 12 17 10 18 14 (a) Construct a time series plot. Time Series Value 20 18 16 14 0 20 18 16 14 20 18 16 20 18 16 14 www 14 12 10 8 6 6 4 2 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Week Week 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Week Week What type of pattern exists in the data? The data appear to follow a seasonal pattern. The data appear to follow a horizontal pattern. The data appear to follow a cyclical pattern. The data appear to follow a trend pattern. (b) Develop the three-week moving average for this time series. (Round your answers to two decimal places.) Week Time Series Forecast 123 Value 19 12 17 4 10 5 18 6 14
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