An exponential smoothing is being used to forecast demand. Which of the following alpha value (or error weight) should be used if the demand is highly sensitive to the current events and external factors? a. 0.75 b. 0.05 c. -1.5 d. 0.0 e. 1.75

Data collected on the yearly registrations for a Six Sigma seminar at the Quality College are shown in the following table: Year -1 2 Registrations (000) 5.0 5.0 Year Forecast 4 4.3 This exercise contains only parts a and b. a) Using a 3-year moving average, the forecasted registrations (in thousands) for years 4 through 12 are (round your responses to one decimal place): 5 4.6 4 3 3.0 5 6 6.6 7 8 4 5 6 9 10 6.0 11.0 9.0 7.0 9.0 13.0 16.0 6 7 8.7 8 9 7 9 8.3 b) Using a 3-year weighted moving average in which the registrations in the most recent year are given a weight of 2, and registrations in the other 2 years are each given a weight of 1, the forecasted registrations (in thousands) for years 4 through 12 are (round your responses to one decimal place): Year Forecast 8 10 9.6 9 11 12.6 10 12 15.3 11 11 17.0 12

Show the steps on excel to plot the graph and insert the equation on the graph

A forecast for the first six months of the year revealed a tendency to underpredict the actual demand for the revitalized Hubig’s Pies plant in the Marigny.   Month Actual Forecast January 675 600 February 720 700 March 640 620 April 510 495 May 480 410 June 565 535 ​ What is the mean squared error of this forecast?   a. 1,694   b. 1,873   c. 2,075   d. 1,469

The number of cases of merlot wine sold by the Connor Owen winery in an eight-year period is as follows: YEAR CASES OF MERLOT WINE 1 270 2 356 3 398 4 456 5 358 6 500 7 410 8 376 Using an exponential smoothing model with an alpha value of 0.20, estimate the smoothed value calculated as of the end of year 8. Use the average demand for years 1 through 3 as your initial forecast for year 4, and then smooth the forecast forward to year 8. Note: Round your intermediate calculations and final answer to the nearest whole number.

The Carbondale Hospital is considering the purchase of a new ambulance. The decision will rest partly on the anticipated mileage to be driven next year. The miles driven during the past 5 years are as follows: 1 3,000 2 3,950 3 3,400 Year Mileage a) Using a 2-year moving average, the forecast for year 6 = miles (round your response to the nearest whole number). 4 3,750 5 3,750

Which of the following is a forecasting error​ measure?     A. CAT   B. SAD   C. MAD   D. BAD

Assume Sandra's forecasted ADR for the night is $1600.99. What would be her estimated total room revenue for this day? ADR = Total room revenue / Number of rooms sold

Dic 2 - Time Series Analysis and F eBook Problem 6-01 (Algorithmic) Consider the following time series data. Thm Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 20 13 15 11 19 13 Using the naïve method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next week, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy. a. Mean absolute error. If required, round your answer to one decimal place. b. Mean squared error. If required, round your answer to one decimal place. c. Mean absolute percentage error. If required, round your intermediate calculations and final answer to two decimal places. % d. What is the forecast for week 7? If required, round your answer to two decimal place.

The following shows five months forecast demand and the corresponding actual demand for certain product.