A small building contractor has recently experienced two successive years in which work opportunities exceeded the firm’s capacity. The contractor must now make a decision on capacity for next year. Estimated profits under each of the two possible states of nature are as shown in the tablebelow. Which alternative should be selected if the decision criterion is:a. Maximax?b. Maximin?c. Laplace?d. Minimax regret?NEXT YEAR’SDEMANDAlternative Low HighDo nothing $50* $60Expand 20 80Subcontract 40 70

A small building contractor has recently experienced two successive years in which work opportunities exceeded the firm’s capacity. The contractor must now make a decision on capacity for next year. Estimated profits under each of the two possible states of nature are as shown in the tablebelow. Which alternative should be selected if the decision criterion is:a. Maximax?b. Maximin?c. Laplace?d. Minimax regret?NEXT YEAR’SDEMANDAlternative Low HighDo nothing $50* $60Expand 20 80Subcontract 40 70

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter9: Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 46P

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Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. Ethical decisions that affect a buyers ethical perspective usually involve the organizational environment, cultural environment, personal environment, and industry environment. Analyze this scenario using these four variables.
Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What should Sharon do in this situation?
Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What does the Institute of Supply Management code of ethics say about financial conflicts of interest?
: A small building contractor has recently experienced two successive years in which work opportunitiesexceeded the firm’s capacity. The contractor must now make a decision on the capacity for the next year.Estimated profits under each of the two possible states of nature are shown in the table below. The units are in P thousands. Which alternative should be selected if the decision criterion is: a. Maximax? b. Maximin? c. Laplace? d. Minimax regret?
c. From the following decision tree, develop a payoff table and calculate: * Maximax, Minimax regret, Maximin, and EMV. ORs. 50,000 Good conditions (0.60) Poor conditions (0.40) -O Rs. 30,000 Apartment Building Good conditions (0.60) O Rs. 100,000 Office building Poor conditions (0.40) Purchase ORs -40,000 Warchouse Good conditions (0.60) Rs.30, 000 Poor conditions (0.40) O Rs. 10,000
A payoff table is given as: S1 S2 S3 D1 250 750 500 D2 300 -250 1200 D3 500 500 600 (a) What choice should be made by the optimistic decision maker? (b) What choice should be made by the conservative decision maker? (c) What decision should be made under minimal regret? (d) If the probabilities of d1, d2, and d3 are .2, .5, and .3, respectively, then what choice should be made under expected value?
Consider the following payoff (cost) table with probabilities for each state of nature (s) Decisions D1 D2 0.1 s1 3 state of nature 1-0.1 s2 17 20 The expected value for the best (optimal) decision is
A decision maker faces with the following four alternatives and four states of nature in the profit payoff table below: B. Cal D. Calculate the expected value of perfect to the nearest integer: 1, A2, A3, or A4. 3 States of nature S3 8 0.1
A manager is trying to decide whether to build a small,medium, or large facility. Demand can be low, average,or high, with the estimated probabilities being 0.25, 0.40,and 0.35, respectively.A small facility is expected to earn an after-tax net pres-ent value of just $18,000 if demand is low. If demand isaverage, the small facility is expected to earn $75,000; it canbe increased to medium size to earn a net present value of$60,000. If demand is high, the small facility is expected to earn $75,000 and can be expanded to medium size to earn$60,000 or to large size to earn $125,000.A medium-sized facility is expected to lose an estimated$25,000 if demand is low and earn $140,000 if demand isaverage. If demand is high, the medium-sized facility isexpected to earn a net present value of $150,000; it can beexpanded to a large size for a net payoff of $145,000.If a large facility is built and demand is high, earningsare expected to be $220,000. If demand is average for thelarge facility, the…
A firm must decide whether to construct a small, medium, or large stamping plant. A consultant’sreport indicates a .20 probability that demand will be low and an .80 probability that demand willbe high.If the firm builds a small facility and demand turns out to be low, the net present value will be$42 million. If demand turns out to be high, the firm can either subcontract and realize the net present value of $42 million or expand greatly for a net present value of $48 million.The firm could build a medium-size facility as a hedge: If demand turns out to be low, its netpresent value is estimated at $22 million; if demand turns out to be high, the firm could do nothingand realize a net present value of $46 million, or it could expand and realize a net present value of$50 million.If the firm builds a large facility and demand is low, the net present value will be – $20 million,whereas high demand will result in a net present value of $72 million.a. Analyze this problem using a decision…
1. A builder has located a piece of property that she would like to buy and eventually build on. The land is currently zoned for four homes per acre, but she is planning to request new zoning. What she builds depends on approval of zoning requests and your analysis of this problem to advise her. With her input and your help, the decision process has been reduced to the following costs, alternatives, and probabilities: Cost of land: $2 million. Probability of rezoning: 0.60. If the land is rezoned, there will be additional costs for new roads, lighting, and so on of $1 million. If the land is rezoned, the contractor must decide whether to build a shopping center or 1,500 apartments that the tentative plan shows would be possible. If she builds a shopping center, there is a 70 percent chance that she can sell the shopping center to a large department store chain for $4 million over her construction cost, which excludes the land; and there is a 30 percent chance that she can sell it to an…
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