A robbery has been committed and McGuff, the crime-fighting dog, has been called in to investigate. He discovers that Sally Coldhands was seen wearing gloves in the neighborhood shortly after the crime, and, thus, he concludes that she should be arrested. From past experience you know that 50% of the peo- ple that McGuff says should be arrested for robbery are actually guilty. Before making the arrest, you order some additional investigation. From a large population of convicted robbers, you find that 60% wore gloves at the time of the crime and continued to wear them for an interval after the crime. Fur- ther investigation reveals that 80% of the people in the neighborhood of the crime were wearing gloves around the time of the crime. a. Based on the fact that Sally was wearing gloves, what is the probability that Sally actually commit- ted the crime? b. If you charged her with the crime, do you think a jury would convict her based on the glove evi- dence? Explain why or why not.

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
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Author:Sheldon Ross
Publisher:Sheldon Ross
Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
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A robbery has been committed and McGuff, the
crime-fighting dog, has been called in to investigate.
He discovers that Sally Coldhands was seen wearing
gloves in the neighborhood shortly after the crime,
and, thus, he concludes that she should be arrested.
From past experience you know that 50% of the peo-
ple that McGuff says should be arrested for robbery
are actually guilty. Before making the arrest, you
order some additional investigation. From a large
population of convicted robbers, you find that 60%
wore gloves at the time of the crime and continued
to wear them for an interval after the crime. Fur-
ther investigation reveals that 80% of the people in
the neighborhood of the crime were wearing gloves
around the time of the crime.
a. Based on the fact that Sally was wearing gloves,
what is the probability that Sally actually commit-
ted the crime?
b. If you charged her with the crime, do you think
a jury would convict her based on the glove evi-
dence? Explain why or why not.
Transcribed Image Text:A robbery has been committed and McGuff, the crime-fighting dog, has been called in to investigate. He discovers that Sally Coldhands was seen wearing gloves in the neighborhood shortly after the crime, and, thus, he concludes that she should be arrested. From past experience you know that 50% of the peo- ple that McGuff says should be arrested for robbery are actually guilty. Before making the arrest, you order some additional investigation. From a large population of convicted robbers, you find that 60% wore gloves at the time of the crime and continued to wear them for an interval after the crime. Fur- ther investigation reveals that 80% of the people in the neighborhood of the crime were wearing gloves around the time of the crime. a. Based on the fact that Sally was wearing gloves, what is the probability that Sally actually commit- ted the crime? b. If you charged her with the crime, do you think a jury would convict her based on the glove evi- dence? Explain why or why not.
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