Practical Management Science
Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN: 9781337406659
Author: WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher: Cengage,
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Question 4.1 

A-C

### Topic: Forecasting Blood Demand at Woodlawn Hospital

#### Recent Blood Usage Data
The table below outlines the number of pints of type A blood used at Woodlawn Hospital over the past six weeks:

| **Week Of**     | **Pints Used** |
|-----------------|------------------|
| August 31       | 360              |
| September 7     | 389              |
| September 14    | 410              |
| September 21    | 381              |
| September 28    | 368              |
| October 5       | 374              |

#### Forecasting Methods

**a) Three-Week Moving Average:**

- To forecast the demand for the week of October 12, calculate the simple average of the pints used over the past three weeks.

**b) Three-Week Weighted Moving Average:**

- Utilize a three-week moving average with specific weights: 0.1, 0.3, and 0.6, where 0.6 is for the most recent week (October 5). Use this method to predict the pints needed for the week of October 12.

**c) Exponential Smoothing:**

- Apply exponential smoothing for the forecast. Begin with the forecast for August 31, which was 360 pints. Use a smoothing constant (alpha) of 0.2 to compute the upcoming demand for the week of October 12.

These methodologies aim to provide accurate projections so that the hospital can maintain sufficient blood supply and meet patient needs efficiently.
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Transcribed Image Text:### Topic: Forecasting Blood Demand at Woodlawn Hospital #### Recent Blood Usage Data The table below outlines the number of pints of type A blood used at Woodlawn Hospital over the past six weeks: | **Week Of** | **Pints Used** | |-----------------|------------------| | August 31 | 360 | | September 7 | 389 | | September 14 | 410 | | September 21 | 381 | | September 28 | 368 | | October 5 | 374 | #### Forecasting Methods **a) Three-Week Moving Average:** - To forecast the demand for the week of October 12, calculate the simple average of the pints used over the past three weeks. **b) Three-Week Weighted Moving Average:** - Utilize a three-week moving average with specific weights: 0.1, 0.3, and 0.6, where 0.6 is for the most recent week (October 5). Use this method to predict the pints needed for the week of October 12. **c) Exponential Smoothing:** - Apply exponential smoothing for the forecast. Begin with the forecast for August 31, which was 360 pints. Use a smoothing constant (alpha) of 0.2 to compute the upcoming demand for the week of October 12. These methodologies aim to provide accurate projections so that the hospital can maintain sufficient blood supply and meet patient needs efficiently.
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