A company that supplies gasoline to a city has recorded the weekly usage (tons/week) for the past 3 years. The file BA3653GasolineRecord.xlsx contains this record. (a) Propose a method for predicting the demand for gasoline. Use that method to forecast demand for next year (weeks 157 to 208). (b) Improve your prediction in part (a) by including a statement about demand variability. (Hint: Look at or the range of the data.) week demand (tons) 1 1174.5 2 1316.2 3 1197 4 1127.3 5 1193.1 6 1260.7 7 1378.2 8 1273.7 9 1366.4 10 1113 11 1177.7 12 1056 13 1291.2 14 1269.1 15 1289.6 16 1181 17 1249 18 1212 19 1286.2 20 1204.8 21 1266.2 22 1332.4 23 1236.3 24 1266.1 25 1415.3 26 1100.1 27 1208.1 28 1505.1 29 1282.7 30 1190.5 31 1152.8 32 1089.7 33 1404.7 34 1308.6 35 1255.4 36 1106.7 37 1484.6 38 1317.4 39 1294.7 40 1154 41 1449.9 42 1174.9 43 1466.9 44 1282.4 45 1228 46 1174 47 1196.2 48 1443.8 49 1309.1 50 1250.8 51 1222.8 52 1409.9 53 1147.3 54 1342.7 55 1220.3 56 1211 57 1293.3 58 1256.6 59 1303.2 60 1204.9 61 1129.1 62 1481.5 63 1230.2 64 1264.1 65 953.7 66 1248.9 67 1172.2 68 1253.5 69 1393.7 70 1245.2 71 995.8 72 1211 73 1319.4 74 1282.2 75 1257.5 76 1309.5 77 1153.7 78 1148.4 79 1346.8 80 1298.2 81 1294.8 82 1387.5 83 1119.3 84 1195.8 85 1364.7 86 1107.9 87 1259 88 1155.9 89 1288.9 90 1098.7 91 1293.5 92 1289.6 93 1442.4 94 1233.1 95 1133.7 96 1151.5 97 1120.5 98 1401.3 99 1273 100 1176.1 101 1204.5 102 1238.3 103 1282.4 104 1205 105 1316.5 106 1184.5 107 1309.2 108 1362.8 109 1174.7 110 1258.5 111 1290.1 112 1188.1 113 1097.9 114 1284 115 1256.5 116 1291 117 1131.5 118 1139.7 119 1323.8 120 1285.9 121 1214.1 122 1164.5 123 1405.4 124 1352.7 125 1305.1 126 1162.2 127 1217.1 128 1348.4 129 1410.8 130 1326 131 1349.5 132 1370.5 133 1293.5 134 1266.4 135 1271.7 136 1099.9 137 1295.7 138 1254.5 139 1219.7 140 1222.5 141 1296.8 142 1271.3 143 1349.5 144 1303.9 145 1254.2 146 980.5 147 1348.8 148 1407.2 149 1298 150 1205.4 151 1401.9 152 903.2 153 1139.3 154 1182.4 155 1349.7 156 1411.7

A company that supplies gasoline to a city has recorded the weekly usage (tons/week) for the past 3 years. The file BA3653GasolineRecord.xlsx contains this record. (a) Propose a method for predicting the demand for gasoline. Use that method to forecast demand for next year (weeks 157 to 208). (b) Improve your prediction in part (a) by including a statement about demand variability. (Hint: Look at or the range of the data.) week demand (tons) 1 1174.5 2 1316.2 3 1197 4 1127.3 5 1193.1 6 1260.7 7 1378.2 8 1273.7 9 1366.4 10 1113 11 1177.7 12 1056 13 1291.2 14 1269.1 15 1289.6 16 1181 17 1249 18 1212 19 1286.2 20 1204.8 21 1266.2 22 1332.4 23 1236.3 24 1266.1 25 1415.3 26 1100.1 27 1208.1 28 1505.1 29 1282.7 30 1190.5 31 1152.8 32 1089.7 33 1404.7 34 1308.6 35 1255.4 36 1106.7 37 1484.6 38 1317.4 39 1294.7 40 1154 41 1449.9 42 1174.9 43 1466.9 44 1282.4 45 1228 46 1174 47 1196.2 48 1443.8 49 1309.1 50 1250.8 51 1222.8 52 1409.9 53 1147.3 54 1342.7 55 1220.3 56 1211 57 1293.3 58 1256.6 59 1303.2 60 1204.9 61 1129.1 62 1481.5 63 1230.2 64 1264.1 65 953.7 66 1248.9 67 1172.2 68 1253.5 69 1393.7 70 1245.2 71 995.8 72 1211 73 1319.4 74 1282.2 75 1257.5 76 1309.5 77 1153.7 78 1148.4 79 1346.8 80 1298.2 81 1294.8 82 1387.5 83 1119.3 84 1195.8 85 1364.7 86 1107.9 87 1259 88 1155.9 89 1288.9 90 1098.7 91 1293.5 92 1289.6 93 1442.4 94 1233.1 95 1133.7 96 1151.5 97 1120.5 98 1401.3 99 1273 100 1176.1 101 1204.5 102 1238.3 103 1282.4 104 1205 105 1316.5 106 1184.5 107 1309.2 108 1362.8 109 1174.7 110 1258.5 111 1290.1 112 1188.1 113 1097.9 114 1284 115 1256.5 116 1291 117 1131.5 118 1139.7 119 1323.8 120 1285.9 121 1214.1 122 1164.5 123 1405.4 124 1352.7 125 1305.1 126 1162.2 127 1217.1 128 1348.4 129 1410.8 130 1326 131 1349.5 132 1370.5 133 1293.5 134 1266.4 135 1271.7 136 1099.9 137 1295.7 138 1254.5 139 1219.7 140 1222.5 141 1296.8 142 1271.3 143 1349.5 144 1303.9 145 1254.2 146 980.5 147 1348.8 148 1407.2 149 1298 150 1205.4 151 1401.9 152 903.2 153 1139.3 154 1182.4 155 1349.7 156 1411.7

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter13: Regression And Forecasting Models

Section13.6: Moving Averages Models

Problem 21P: The file P13_21.xlsx contains the weekly sales of rakes at a hardware store for a two-year period....

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Question

week	demand (tons)
1	1174.5
2	1316.2
3	1197
4	1127.3
5	1193.1
6	1260.7
7	1378.2
8	1273.7
9	1366.4
10	1113
11	1177.7
12	1056
13	1291.2
14	1269.1
15	1289.6
16	1181
17	1249
18	1212
19	1286.2
20	1204.8
21	1266.2
22	1332.4
23	1236.3
24	1266.1
25	1415.3
26	1100.1
27	1208.1
28	1505.1
29	1282.7
30	1190.5
31	1152.8
32	1089.7
33	1404.7
34	1308.6
35	1255.4
36	1106.7
37	1484.6
38	1317.4
39	1294.7
40	1154
41	1449.9
42	1174.9
43	1466.9
44	1282.4
45	1228
46	1174
47	1196.2
48	1443.8
49	1309.1
50	1250.8
51	1222.8
52	1409.9
53	1147.3
54	1342.7
55	1220.3
56	1211
57	1293.3
58	1256.6
59	1303.2
60	1204.9
61	1129.1
62	1481.5
63	1230.2
64	1264.1
65	953.7
66	1248.9
67	1172.2
68	1253.5
69	1393.7
70	1245.2
71	995.8
72	1211
73	1319.4
74	1282.2
75	1257.5
76	1309.5
77	1153.7
78	1148.4
79	1346.8
80	1298.2
81	1294.8
82	1387.5
83	1119.3
84	1195.8
85	1364.7
86	1107.9
87	1259
88	1155.9
89	1288.9
90	1098.7
91	1293.5
92	1289.6
93	1442.4
94	1233.1
95	1133.7
96	1151.5
97	1120.5
98	1401.3
99	1273
100	1176.1
101	1204.5
102	1238.3
103	1282.4
104	1205
105	1316.5
106	1184.5
107	1309.2
108	1362.8
109	1174.7
110	1258.5
111	1290.1
112	1188.1
113	1097.9
114	1284
115	1256.5
116	1291
117	1131.5
118	1139.7
119	1323.8
120	1285.9
121	1214.1
122	1164.5
123	1405.4
124	1352.7
125	1305.1
126	1162.2
127	1217.1
128	1348.4
129	1410.8
130	1326
131	1349.5
132	1370.5
133	1293.5
134	1266.4
135	1271.7
136	1099.9
137	1295.7
138	1254.5
139	1219.7
140	1222.5
141	1296.8
142	1271.3
143	1349.5
144	1303.9
145	1254.2
146	980.5
147	1348.8
148	1407.2
149	1298
150	1205.4
151	1401.9
152	903.2
153	1139.3
154	1182.4
155	1349.7
156	1411.7

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