1. Construct an exponential smoothing model for the Amazon Revenue Data. a. Use 0.7 as the smoothing constant and b. 7,131 as the initial value C. What is your prediction for Q1, 2021? d. Calculate the MAD, MSE, and MAPE for this time series model. 2. Construct a moving average model (k=3) for the Amazon Revenue Data. 3. Compare the smoothing and moving average models. Which is more accurate? A B C 20 12345690022===≈ Year Quarter Revenue 2010 1 7,131.00 2010 2 6,566.00 2010 3 7,560.00 2010 4 12,947.00 2011 1 9,857.00 7 2011 2 9,913.00 8 2011 3 10,876.00 2011 4 17,431.00 10 2012 1 13,185.00 11 2012 2 12,834.00 12 2012 3 13,806.00 13 2012 4 21,268.00 14 2013 1 16,070.00 15 2013 2 15,704.00 16 2013 3 17,091.00 17 2013 4 25,587.00 18 2014 1 19,741.00 19 2014 2 19,340.00 20 2014 3 20,578.00 21 2014 4 29,329.00 22 2015 1 22,717.00 23 2015 2 23,184.00 24 2015 3 25,358.00 25 2015 4 35,747.00 26 2016 1 29,128.00 27 2016 2 30,404.00 28 2016 3 32,714.00 29 2016 4 43,741.00 30 2017 1 35,714.00 31 2017 2 37,955.00 32 2017 3 43,744.00 33 2017 4 60,453.00 34 2018 1 51,042.00 35 2018 2 52,886.00 36 2018 3 56,576.00 37 2018 4 72,383.00 38 2019 1 59,700.00 39 2019 2 63,404.00 40 2019 3 69,982.00 41 2019 4 87,436.00 42 2020 1 75,452.00 43 2020 2 88,912.00 44 2020 3 96,145.00 45 2020 4 125,555.00

1. Construct an exponential smoothing model for the Amazon Revenue Data. a. Use 0.7 as the smoothing constant and b. 7,131 as the initial value C. What is your prediction for Q1, 2021? d. Calculate the MAD, MSE, and MAPE for this time series model. 2. Construct a moving average model (k=3) for the Amazon Revenue Data. 3. Compare the smoothing and moving average models. Which is more accurate? A B C 20 12345690022===≈ Year Quarter Revenue 2010 1 7,131.00 2010 2 6,566.00 2010 3 7,560.00 2010 4 12,947.00 2011 1 9,857.00 7 2011 2 9,913.00 8 2011 3 10,876.00 2011 4 17,431.00 10 2012 1 13,185.00 11 2012 2 12,834.00 12 2012 3 13,806.00 13 2012 4 21,268.00 14 2013 1 16,070.00 15 2013 2 15,704.00 16 2013 3 17,091.00 17 2013 4 25,587.00 18 2014 1 19,741.00 19 2014 2 19,340.00 20 2014 3 20,578.00 21 2014 4 29,329.00 22 2015 1 22,717.00 23 2015 2 23,184.00 24 2015 3 25,358.00 25 2015 4 35,747.00 26 2016 1 29,128.00 27 2016 2 30,404.00 28 2016 3 32,714.00 29 2016 4 43,741.00 30 2017 1 35,714.00 31 2017 2 37,955.00 32 2017 3 43,744.00 33 2017 4 60,453.00 34 2018 1 51,042.00 35 2018 2 52,886.00 36 2018 3 56,576.00 37 2018 4 72,383.00 38 2019 1 59,700.00 39 2019 2 63,404.00 40 2019 3 69,982.00 41 2019 4 87,436.00 42 2020 1 75,452.00 43 2020 2 88,912.00 44 2020 3 96,145.00 45 2020 4 125,555.00

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter9: Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Section9.6: The Role Of Risk Aversion

Problem 26P

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