3-36 A group of medical professionals is considering the construction of a private clinic. If the medical demand is high (i.e., there is a favorable market for the clinic), the physicians could realize a net profit of $100,000. If the market is not favorable, they could lose $40,000. Of course, they don’t have to proceed at all, in which case there is no cost. In the absence of any market data, the physicians’ best guess is that there is a 50–50 chance the clinic will be successful. Construct (Draw) a small decision tree from this problem, do the calculations/decisions, and highlight the final decision of the medical professionals.
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3-36 A group of medical professionals is considering the construction of a private clinic. If the medical demand is high (i.e., there is a favorable market for the clinic), the physicians could realize a net profit of $100,000. If the market is not favorable, they could lose $40,000. Of course, they don’t have to proceed at all, in which case there is no cost. In the absence of any market data, the physicians’ best guess is that there is a 50–50 chance the clinic will be successful. Construct (Draw) a small decision tree from this problem, do the calculations/decisions, and highlight the final decision of the medical professionals.
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- A group of medical professionals is considering the construction of a private clinic. If the medical de-mand is high (i.e., there is a favorable market for the clinic), the physicians could realize a net profit of $100,000. If the market is not favorable, they could lose $40,000. Of course, they don’t have to proceed at all, in which case there is no cost. In the absence of any market data, the physicians’ best guess is that there is a 50–50 chance the clinic will be successful. Construct a decision tree to help analyze this problem. What should the medical professionals do? Need to construction a Decision Tree using in Excel OM/QM, so if you could an use excel spreadsheet to solve, this would be idea3-36 A group of medical professionals is considering the construction of a private clinic. If the medical demand is high (i.e., there is a favorable market for the clinic), the physicians could realize a net profit of $100,000. If the market is not favorable, they could lose $40,000. Of course, they don’t have to proceed at all, in which case there is no cost. In the absence of any market data, the physicians’ best guess is that there is a 50–50 chance the clinic will be successful. Construct a decision tree to help analyze this problem. What should the medical professionals do? (Construct a small decision tree from this problem, do the calculations/decisions, and highlight the final decision of the medical professionals.)A group of doctors is considering the construction of a private clinic. IF the medical demand is high (favorable market for the clinic), the physicians could realize a profit of P1,000,000. If the market is not favorable, they could lose P400,000. If they don’t proceed at all, there is no cost. In the absence of any market research, the best the physician can guess is that there is a 50-50 chance the clinic will be successful. Required: Construct a decision tree to help analyze this problem. What should the doctors do?
- Topic: ProbabilityGoal: In your business planning, you will employ mathematics probability to increase your chances of success.You play the role of a tiny business owner who wants to expand into a much larger enterprise. You must write a written report and deliver it to the group on the most likely outcome(s) of the business you wish to start.The target audience is a group of small company owners who could be interested in partnering with you. Product: A written report on the business's likely results that will be given to the group. Success Criteria: The written report that will be provided must be... - Represents genuine business problems or patterns. - Persuasive, based on probability mathematics.#6) A group of medical professionals is considering constructing a private clinic. If a patient demand for the clinic is high, the physicians could realize a net profit of $120,000. If the demand is low, they could lose $55,000. Of course, they do not have to proceed at all, in which case there is no cost. In the absence of any market data, the best the physicians can guess is that there is a 50-50 chance the demand would be high. a) Create a decision tree. b) What should the medical professionals do? What is the payoff? c) The physicians have been approached by a market research firm that offers to perform a study of the market at a fee of $5,000. The market researchers claim that their experience enables them to use Bayes’ theorem to make the following statements of probability: -probability of high demand given a positive survey result = 0.82 -probability of low demand given a positive survey result = 0.18 -probability of high demand given a negative survey result = 0.11…Problem 1) The Nitro Fertilizer Company is developing a new fertilizer. If Nitro markets the product and it is successful, then the company will earn a $50,000 profit; if it is unsuccessful, the company will lose $50,000. In that past, similar products have been successful 55% of the time. At a cost of $10,000, the effectiveness of the new fertilizer can be tested. If the test result is favorable, there is an 80% chance that the fertilizer will be successful. If the test result is unfavorable, there is only a 30% chance that the fertilizer will be successful. There is a 60% chance of a favorable test result and a 40% chance of an unfavorable test result. a) Construct a decision tree to determine Nitro's optimal strategy b) Find the EVSI and EVPI Note I need solution of part A only
- Problem 1) The Nitro Fertilizer Company is developing a new fertilizer. If Nitro markets the product and it is successful, then the company will earn a $50,000 profit; if it is unsuccessful, the company will lose $50,000. In that past, similar products have been successful 55% of the time. At a cost of $10,000, the effectiveness of the new fertilizer can be tested. If the test result is favorable, there is an 80% chance that the fertilizer will be successful. If the test result is unfavorable, there is only a 30% chance that the fertilizer will be successful. There is a 60% chance of a favorable test result and a 40% chance of an unfavorable test result. a) Construct a decision tree to determine Nitro's optimal strategy b) Find the EVSI and EVPI I need solution of part (b) only4. "Family Man," a construction company, is considering whether to bid on a contract for a new housing complex. The cost of preparing a bid USD 200,000. “Family Man" has a 0.8 probability of winning the contract, if it submits the bid. If "Family Man" wins the bid, it has to pay USD 2000,000 to be a project partner of the project. As per the usual practice, "Family Man" will then consider consulting a market research firm "Marquess" to conduct a market survey to forecast the demand of housing complex before beginning the construction. "Marquess" charges a fee of USD 150,000. Now, the demand scenario can be either "High demand" or "Low demand." "Family Man" gets a revenue of USD 5000,000 and USD 3000,000 in case of "High demand" and "Low demand" scenario, respectively. On the other hand, instead of construction, "Family Man" has a provision of selling its project rights to another project partner construction company at the price USD 3500,000. As per the historical data, "Marquess"…Suppose that you’re a finance major and upon graduation you want a job, preferably as a personal financial planner, with a minimum salary of Rs 1,50,000 and within a hundred miles of your hometown. You accept a job offer as a business credit analyst—not exactly a personal financial planner but still in the finance field—at a bank 50 miles from home at a starting salary of Rs 1,20,000. If you had done a more comprehensive job search, you would have discovered a job in personal financial planning at a trust company only 25 miles from your hometown and starting at a salary of Rs 1,60,000. Were you a perfectly rational decision maker in this case? Why or why not? Explain.
- 3. The manager for a manufacturing company must recommend whether to construct a large plant, construct a small plant or do nothing. He estimates the long-run profits in $ as follows: State of Nature Alternative Good Average Poor Market($) Market ($) Market ($) Construct a 100,000 35,000 -60,000 large plant Construct a 75,000 25,000 -40,000 small plant Do nothing -5,000 0 0 Probability 25% 50% 25% Solve using: A. Expected Opportunity Loss B. Expected Value of Perfect InformationSun TV sells TV sets. It does not sell smart TVs so customers do not come to Sun TV if they want to purchase smart TVs. Sun TV wants to start selling smart TVs and will only sell smart TVs to customers to whom they advertise. Managers use customer information (income level, previous purchase history) to decide which customers they should target. The team needs to decide how sure it must be in predicting customer interest in a smart TV. If it is too cautious, it will choose a very high cutoff probability and only market to customers who it believes are very likely to be in the market for a smart TV. This may cause them to miss out on many customers. If they are too aggressive and choose a low cutoff probability, they may identify more individuals interested in buying smart TVs but also end up wasting marketing dollars on customers who are not interested in purchasing smart TVs. To choose a cutoff probability, the team develops the confusion matrices below for two cutoff probabilities on…The water pump company has succeeded in introducing a water pump that saves electricity, is easy to install, and is durable (guaranteed). Its high quality has given the company an early edge in the local and national markets, but the entry of highly skilled competitors may occur within the next 3 years. Assume that the income and expense relationship of the company is as follows: TR = 22000Q - 15.6Q2 MR = dTR / dQ = 22000 - 31.2Q TC = 300000 + 4640Q + 10Q2 MC = dTC / dQ = 4640 + 20Q Where TR is income (in thousands of rupiah), Q is quantity (in units), MR is marginal income (in thousands of rupiah), TC is total cost, including a risk-adjusted normal rate of return on investment (in thousands of rupiah), and MC is the marginal cost (in thousands of rupiah). a. Compute: the profit-maximizing price-output combination. b. Compute: long-run equilibrium high-price / low-output. c. Compute: long-run low-price / high-output equilibrium