2-1 Sales of Cool-Man air conditioners have grown steadily during the past 5 years: DEMAND ADV SEPENT 2017 2018 450 1200 495 1650 1710 2019 2020 518 563 1860 2021 584 1960 Predict the demand of Year 2021 by: a. Using 3 moving average b. Using exponential smoothing with alpha = 0.30. The sales manager had predicted, before the business started, that year l's sales would be 410 air conditioners. c. Using the relationship between the sales and advertainment spent Which of the above value is the best predicated demand for Year 2021? 2-2 Three trials for the company stock control system were calculated as shown in the table below. The holding cost, shortage cost and ordering costs have been estimated to be $220, $8Q and $170. The company has a high competition therefore they need to keep their customer and attract more new customers. Strategy 1 strategy 2 Strategy 3 Reorder Quantity 200 600 400 Reorder Level 300 400 200 Lead Time 1 Number of days when stock out is occurred 20 12 Number of days when holding is occurred 10 18 25 Number of holding units Mean of closing cost Number of orders placed Number of Back ord ers 900 1450 2500 305 754 1500 20 10 1000 700 300 Based on the given information, answer the following questions: a. Which model has been used? b. Calculate the total cost under each trial c. Which of the following inventory strategy is the best? Explain your answer d. If the company has 600 units in the stock, production is 500 units and demand estimated to be 800 units, what will be the profit of the company in this day following strategy 1? (Price is $200 and production cost is $90). e. Based on D, if the demand is estimated to be 400, Reordered quantity is 200 units and the manager wants to reach profit of $33000, what should be the Reorder Level?|

K The following table gives the number of pints of type A blood used at Damascus Hospital in the past 6 weeks: Week Of August 31 September 7 September 14 September 21 September 28 October 5 - Pints Used 350 370 412 378 371 378 a) The forecasted demand for the week of October 12 using a 3-week moving average = 375.67 pints (round your response to two decimal places). b) Using a 3-week weighted moving average, with weights of 0.15, 0.30, and 0.55, using 0.55 for the most recent week, the forecasted demand for the week of October 12 = decimal places and remember to use the weights in appropriate order the largest weight applies to most recent period and smallest weight applies to oldest period.) pints (round your response to two

Calculate the mean square error, mean absolute deviation and the Period Year Call Volume forecast Error 1 1 30 45 -15 2 2 25 15 10 3 2 55 65 -10 4 3 15 20 -5 Your answer?

Month Demand Forecast Error Abs Error alpha 1 20 2 18 3 21 4 25 5 24 6 27 7 22 8 30 9 23 10 20 11 29 12 22 Mean Bias MAD (mean error) Problem 6: Maverick Jeans' demand manager decided to evaluate exponential smoothing. To maintain com- parability, she used the data from problem 6, copied below. 1 Month 2 3 Demand 20 18 21 25 4 5 24 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 27 22 30 23 20 29 22 Develop forecasts for months 5-12. Calculate the Bias and MAD. Use a starting forecast of 20 for month 4 and an alpha value of 0.2. (Note: Adjust all cell values to two decimal points.)